“Wait and See”
By Gannon Medwick
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
I seem to utter the words “We’ll have to wait and see” often in tropical season. I know it may be unsatisfying to hear uncertainty from your weatherman, by golly, it’s honest!
The uncertainty in forecasting tropical weather events hinges largely on error in computer forecast models and the long timescale of the forecast. Many of the computer models we forecasters look to for guidance in generating a forecast do reasonably well with mid-latitude weather events but don’t handle tropical weather events as reliably. Less confidence in a computer model = Less confidence in a forecast = More uncertainty! Also, the long timescales involved in forecasting tropical events tend to erode forecaster confidence for said events. Case in point: T.D. 4 (as I write this it is T.D. 4 but it may become Dean later today). T.D. 4 is so far into the Atlantic, North America wouldn’t even feel its effects (whether it ultimately does at all) for another 7 to 10 days! Since forecast uncertainty grows with time, long-track tropical weather events can be tricky! Incidentally, the long range forecast possibilities for T.D. 4, or what will become of it, are wide open.
We invite you to stay with Storm Team 9 as we track T.D. 4 (potentially Dean) and the rest of the tropical season for you!
Feel free to respond to this blog! I look forward to reading your comments.
Take care,
Gannon
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