Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams. 

I got a wonderful email from Gina in Trenton today.  To set up the story I need to tell you about my forecast from yesterday.  I said it was going to be very cold Monday night, so if you have pets outside, make sure to bring them inside.  It turned out to be a very cold night as forecast with lows in the lower 20’s and even a couple of places dipped to 19.

Ok, back to the story...In Gina’s email she said that she and her husband, Dan, watch me every night.  She said her husband “believes everything Phillip says,” so she brought their dogs inside while Dan was away during the evening.  He was shocked when he got home to see his dogs inside.  So far, this doesn’t sound like a very interesting story until I tell you one more crucial piece of information.  Dan and Gina own 20 dogs!

I’m sure the dogs were happy to be inside from the cold.  I think Dan will be happy tonight since it will not be as cold and in my forecast I said it is fine to leave the pets outside tonight.

I want to thank Gina and Dan from Trenton for telling me about their story and for watching me on WNCT every night!

take care everyone,

Phillip Williams

This morning’s very cold low temperatures included:

18 at Kenansville.
19 at Kinston.
19 at Richlands.
21 at Pitt-Greenville Airport.
22 at Jacksonville.
25 at the Channel 9 Studios in South Greenville.
25 at Washington.
25 at New Bern.
27 at Havelock.
31 at Morehead City.

I checked the WNCT Weather Almanac (available here at wnct.com), and the last time temperatures were so cold for all of Eastern North Carolina was February 19 of 2007.  The coldest morning of the 2006-2007 winter season occurred February 9 when the temperature fell to 17 at the Channel 9 Studios.

Remember rare December Tropical Storm Olga from early this week?  Olga itself is dead, but its remnant moisture may help bring beneficial rain to Eastern Carolina this weekend (especially Saturday night)!

On Saturday, a storm will grow over the southern Mississippi Valley and quickly track toward the Carolinas.  Ahaed of the storm, southerly winds will tap rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean and bring it here in the form of rain.  From a drought standpoint - the richer the moisture feed, the more rain for us, the better off we are.  That’s where Olga’s remains come in - if the one-time tropical storm can supply some extra moisture to the mix, then we can be more excited for our rain chances.

Only time will tell exactly how much rain will fall in the East, but I will say this: this is the best setup for rain we’ve had since the end of October.  Most computer models are now suggesting very generous rains for Saturday night.  Stay tuned!

While I don’t buy into a strict definition of a “soaking rain”, I generally classify a “soaker” as a rainstorm which delivers at least one half inch of rain to the majority of Eastern Carolina.  Given this definition, do you know when the last soaking rain happened here?  October 27!!!  Now that we’re into middle December, we’re going on 50 days without meaningful, soaking rain!!!  Our drought situation is dire.

While some showers (rain amounts mainly under .1") enter the Storm Team 9 Forecast for tonight, the greatest hope for soaking rain in the next week continues to hinge on a weekend storm that will emerge from the Gulf of Mexico.  How much rain this storm will deliver is still highly in question, but given the storm’s moist Gulf of Mexico roots, I’m at least encouraged for the potential - not promise, potential - for decent rain.  Stay tuned!

Yesterday, a so-called “backdoor” cold front (one that comes from the northeast instead of the more typical northwest direction) brought clouds, northeast winds and significantly cooler temperatures to locations just north of Highway 264.  Highs were in the 50s and 60s for Rocky Mount, Wilson, Williamston and Washington.  Greenville hit 70 at the airport, but just south of town and back through Kinston, Goldsboro, New Bern and Jacksonville, sun and southwest winds held on and temperature soared well into the 70s.

Today, I haven’t had to worry about a backdoor front.  Yesterday’s backdoor cold front converted into a warm front last night and lifted north of North Carolina.  Today, sunshine and southwest winds will warm EVERYBODY!  Highs will be well into the 70s if not near 80 from Rocky Mount to Bayboro, from Plymouth to Wallace. 

Enjoy!  But don’t expect these temps to last for too long… You can find out more about a cooler extended forecast here at wnct.com or tune to Channel 9 for a complete forecast at noon, six and eleven.  Meantime, thanks for checking out my blog!

Subtropical Storm Olga formed from the cluster of showers and thunderstorms I mentioned in yesterday’s blog.  Though Olga is weak and its life span will be short (it will likely disintigrate over the mountains of the Caribbean island of Hispanola later today), the subtropical storm is an interesting end note in the 2007 Atlantic Tropical Storm Season - and thus worth talking a little bit about here.

First, let’s address Olga’s classification as a “subtropical” storm.  A subtropical storm is one that has both characteristics of a tropical, or warm core, storm, and a non-tropical, or cold core, storm.  Warm core storms gain energy from the warm waters they traverse.  Cold core storms gain energy from contrasts in air temperature over given distances.  Subtropical storms like Olga are hybrids - they gain energy both ways.

We’ve seen the National Hurricane Center classify a few systems as subtropical recently.  One such subtropical storm, Andrea, formed in May of this year, before the official start of hurricane season.  Andrea brought lashing winds and beach erosion to our coast.  Olga, however, will not impact North Carolina.

Thanks for checking out my blog!  Feel free to post questions or comments!

I’ve been talking about it in my forecasts this morning: A westbound wave of low pressure (cluster of thunderstorms) near Puerto Rico has an outside chance of attaining tropical or subtropical characteristics within the next couple of days.

A potential tropical storm in December?!?!  Atlantic Tropical Storm Season ended November 30!  December, that is post-season, storms are rare, but not unheard of.  The last time a tropical storm or hurricane operated in the Atlantic Ocean in December was the monster hurricane year of 2005.  Hurricane Epsilon’s complete life cycle lasted from 11/29/05 to 12/9/05.  Tropical Storm Zeta formed in the open Atlantic very, very late in 2005 - on the 30th of December!

So, will the tropical wave in question on this December day develop into a tropical storm?  Again, it has an outside chance to do so, but it’s chances will grow if wind shear lessens over the system with time.  Stay tuned! 

Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.

I’ve got some 70’s in the forecast by the end of the weekend and the start of next week.  So, is it winter yet?

Well, it is meteorological winter even though the calendar doesn’t agree just yet.  Meteorological seasons are 3 months each with winter being December, January, and February.  The calendar shows winter beginning on the winter solstice which is December 22nd this year.  The solstice is when the sun is directly over the Tropic of Capricorn.  That is when the sun’s angle is the lowest in the sky over our area.

No matter what if it is still late autumn or winter, it will feel more like spring to start a new week.  I think Monday and Tuesday could be well into the 70’s.  Enjoy the mild weather while it lasts.  You know we will get more winter weather before too long.

Take care and thanks for reading my blog.  Feel free to add comments.

Phillip Williams

Hello Everyone!

Now that December is officially underway and the Hurricane Season is officially over, most people minds tend to focus on the holidays, all the shopping and colder weather! Most kids want to see snow while adults can take it or leave it when it comes to the white stuff, but now “Mother Nature” has throw a wrench into the equation...70 degree temps!!! You might be thinking..."Now this just isn’t right. It doesn’t get me into the holiday spirit” and as the author to this blog I have to agree. So what is making this happen? Well, when reading weather maps and looking over charts, we at Storm Team 9 look at the global pattern to see what may come down the pike and right now much of the really Arctic air has been confined to Canada and on occasion the Northern Plains with very little push to the south for a prolonged period. The sun is responsible for keeping a balance between hot and cold on planet Earth and the Jet Stream is a “train” if you will for moving around the air masses. The 70 temps in December are not normal, but we are in pattern where it seems like weather here in the East and south in general is just plain off. Another factor in bringing us our weather are the oceans temperatures fluctuations and what are termed La Nina or El Nino. Talked about more often now than say 15 years ago, the global forecast is for us to continue a developing La Nina pattern through the winter months. Looking back in weather history, whenever a La Nina pattern has developed, it has shown that the south usually recieves below average precipitaion and with the current severe drought that we have in our state, a continuation of dry weather on already dry ground, can make our days just a bit warmer than normal. So maybe one explaination for the 70 degree days ahead, is that La Nina is continuing to develop and unless the weather pattern can change in short period of time, then we may be stuck with a very un-Christmas like feel to the air and a dry and mild winter ahead.

Raleigh-Durham International Airport reported light ice pellets for ten minutes this morning (just after 7am).  No ice accumulated, and visibility was never hampered, but this minor event still counts as the first report of solid precipitation of this early winter season at RDU. 

A “clipper” low pressure system scooting to the north of North Carolina today brought with it just enough moisture and lift to create the light precipitation at our capital city.  Maybe your dreaming of more wintry excitement?  Sorry… With the track of the clipper to the north of North Carolina, the best swath of snow - and it may accumulate a few inches - will be from the West Virginia mountains through northern Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and southern portions of Pennsylvania and New Jersey.