I seem to utter the words “We’ll have to wait and see” often in tropical season.  I know it may be unsatisfying to hear uncertainty from your weatherman, by golly, it’s honest!

The uncertainty in forecasting tropical weather events hinges largely on error in computer forecast models and the long timescale of the forecast.  Many of the computer models we forecasters look to for guidance in generating a forecast do reasonably well with mid-latitude weather events but don’t handle tropical weather events as reliably.  Less confidence in a computer model = Less confidence in a forecast = More uncertainty!  Also, the long timescales involved in forecasting tropical events tend to erode forecaster confidence for said events.  Case in point: T.D. 4 (as I write this it is T.D. 4 but it may become Dean later today).  T.D. 4 is so far into the Atlantic, North America wouldn’t even feel its effects (whether it ultimately does at all) for another 7 to 10 days!  Since forecast uncertainty grows with time, long-track tropical weather events can be tricky!  Incidentally, the long range forecast possibilities for T.D. 4, or what will become of it, are wide open.

We invite you to stay with Storm Team 9 as we track T.D. 4 (potentially Dean) and the rest of the tropical season for you!

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

The Atlantic Tropical Storm Season is two and a half months old, but the Cape Verde Tropical Storm Season is just beginning.  This “season within a season”, named for Cape Verde, on the west coast of Africa, begins in the middle of August and lasts through October.  In this season, atmospheric and oceanic conditions become more favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop from clusters of showers and thunderstorms that move off the African coast. 

Today I am tracking one such cluster of thunderstorms – a vigorous westbound tropical wave not far from Cape Verde.  I believe there’s a good chance that this system will develop into the next Atlantic tropical depression within the next day or so.  Look for Storm Team 9 to discuss more possibilities for this feature in our web forecasts and our television broadcasts.

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

I would love to hear your report of the storm in your area.  Please comment and tell us where you were and what you experienced from the storms.

The front produced heavy storms Friday that resulted in many storm reports of wind damage.  Two mobile homes were turned over in Edgecombe County.  No injuries came from that.  In Goldsboro, the roof of a motel was torn off.  Trees were down in many counties throughout the East including Edgecombe, Pitt, Martin, Wayne, Lenoir, Craven and Duplin.

Now that the storms have moved through, the heat wave is broken and the weekend will have a return to typical August weather instead of the dangerous heat.  Enjoy!

Phillip

I had a bit of a forecast challenge this morning in deciding which weather “story” would be greater: heat or severe thunderstorms.  In the end, I chose to include both in a headline on my “Today’s Forecast” graphic that reads “Heat / Few Storms”.

We know about the heat part!  I expect an inland high near 100 with a heat index upwards of 120 again today.  This dangerous heat warrants a spot in the headline.  The “Few Storms” part is important too.  Later in this stifling afternoon, thunderstorms will develop as a cold front approaches – and heads up! – some of them could turn severe.  This part of the weather story is headline-worthy, too. 

A dual headline weather day usually means exciting weather is near.  And I am excited!  The stormy cold front I mentioned will bring an end to the extreme heat wave.  I expect highs tomorrow near a more reasonable and seasonable 90 degrees. 

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.

Lightning lit up the skies for parts of the East Thursday evening.  Do you know how hot a bolt of lightning is?  Would you believe 30,000 degree?  That is the correct answer!  That is also why lightning makes thunder.  Thunder is the sound of the air exploding.  Thunder is also harmless, so if you or your children are afraid of thunder, don’t be.  Consider thunder a good friend telling you to get inside where it is safe from lightning.

Lightning happens with hot air rises into colder air.  The raindrops are carried high in the cloud where the outer shell of the raindrops begin to freeze.  As they go higher where it is colder the inside of the raindrop freezes next and expands.  That shatters the outer shell of ice into a bunch of little pieces of ice.  The little pieces of ice are positively charged which leaves the rest of frozen droplet negatively charged.  The tiny pieces are carried higher in the cloud because they weigh less.  The next thing you know, you have a cloud that is negative at the lower part and positive at the top.  This seperation of charges gets high enough to cause lightning.

What is interesting is that you feel this happening.  Have you ever been inside with no windows, but you feel a storm is getting closer.  This could be explained by the electrical charges.  Since the lowest part of a storm is negative, then as it approaches, it chases away other negative charges, so objects including people become positively charged.  You may be able to feel this as strands of hair begin to seperate.  If you are ever outside and a storm is approaching and you feel a tingling feeling, lightning may be about to strike.  Get inside right away. 

Our hot weather lately can make thunderstorms grow very tall.  Respect lightning and enjoy the show from the safety of inside your home or car.  Oh yes, lightning can strike cars, but if you are inside the car with the windows closed, then you will be safe.  Inside a home is the best place to be during a storm.

Heat waves are known to create storms with the most vivid lightning.  You can see some amazing lightning pictures at the National Weather Service lightning safety page.

Take care,

Phillip Williams

Never have I found the difference between the word “cool” and “cooler” as great as it is my the forecast for the remainder of this week. 

As I write, we’re all – like it or not – about to go into another day with triple digit temperatures and humidity levels fit for the Amazon Rain Forest.  Heat index values will be dangerous again today.  You will notice Storm Team 9 talking about a cold front headed this way in time for the weekend.  By Saturday, temperatures will reach to near 90 degrees with slightly lower humidity levels and noticeably fresher air. 

Isn’t it funny, though?  90 degrees is something we should look forward to?  In this heat wave, yes, it is.  So, when you watch my forecasts, make sure I use the word “cooler” instead of “cool” to describe this weekend’s temperatures.  I don’t want to call 90 “cool”, but everything in weather is relative, isn’t it?

By the way, autumn officially arrives September 23.  If you’re counting, that’s about 45 days, 15 hours, and 42 minutes from the time of this post.

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.

The biggest meteor shower of the year is the Perseid Meteor Shower which reaches its peak Sunday night, August 12th.  Anytime during the night will be good to see meteors, also known as “shooting starts.“  They really aren’t stars, but they look like it.

Click here to learn more about the meteor shower.

The best way to view the meteor shower is to find a very dark place with a large view of the sky.  Getting away from city lights helps.  In the past I have gone out to a corn field and taken some bug spray, a lawn chair, a blanket, and a pillow and I’ve been all set.  Lay down so that you look up, but slightly toward the northeastern sky.  That is where the meteors will zip from.  They will make quick streaks of light through the sky.  You should see one every minute or so.  Some years have great shows. 

Meteors are tiny bits of dust, rock, and ice that burn up when entering the Earth’s atmosphere.  Only in a rare case will one make it all the way to the ground.  More than 99% of them burn up high in the atmosphere, so be afraid one will fall on you.

Please share any experiences you have had with meteor showers.  Also, if you know of any good places to view them, share that also.  There are astronomy clubs around the East.  I have talked with members of the Tar River Astronomy club before and they have good ideas about the best ways to view a variety of celestial objects.

OK, here is tidbit of information you probably didn’t know.  The word “meteorologist” has something to do with meteors.  It was ancient times that men were sent out to watch the heavens for meteors.  They were supposed to have signifigance to the affairs of state.  These men would watch the sky so much that they became very familiar with the weather.  People began asking them about the weather and before you know it, we have meteorologists forecasting the weather.

Take care and enjoy the skies,

Phillip Williams

Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.

Any idea what the hottest temperature ever recorded in North Carolina is?  You can find the answer at the bottom of this blog.

Blame it on high pressure!  Yes, the heat wave can be blamed on high pressure.  Don’t blame the messenger! 

What’s really interesting is that high pressure means that the air is sinking down on the Earth.  When this happens, it sinks down on the air near the ground and heats it up.  Add to this a strong August sun and plenty of humidity and you have the making of real heat wave.

I see a break coming!  A cold front will ease into the area Friday night or Saturday morning.  This will drop temperatures down to at least more average and bearable levels.

Ok, do you have guess yet for the highest temperature ever in North Carolina?  Here is the answer…

110 degrees in Fayetteville, NC on August 21, 1983.  I remember this well.  Ok, not so well.  I passed out from that heat wave, so my memory may be a little foggy.  That is when I started at NC State University.  For the first time in my life, I was living without air conditioning in a tiny room on the second floor of a large brick and concrete highrise.  I was in the middle high rise of three, so my room was surrounded by concrete and it probably got up well above 100 in there.  Oh yea, I was sharing this 8 foot wide with a roommate too.  Anyway, to make a long story short, I overheated after three days of the heat including walking all over campus to classes.  I spent the next few days in the infermary.  I survived, but don’t want to go through that again.

Take care everyone and stay cool.  Drink plenty of water and don’t exert yourself during the hottest parts of the day. (noon until 7pm)

Phillip

Though my scary-looking forecast of 100 might grab your attention most today, I, your morning forecaster, wanted to give equal, if not greater, time to its torrid summer cousin: the heat index.  Today, the heat index – that is, the perceived temperature based on a combination of temperature and humidity – is more important than temperature alone.  I am forecasting dangerous inland heat index values between 105 and 115 this afternoon.  This morning, even before sunrise, the heat index was already an unbelievable 96 at Jacksonville and 90 at Greenville!  Exercise all heat precautions today, and when you watch Storm Team 9 this week, look for a continued focus beyond temperature to the true stressing summertime statistic: heat index.

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

Hi everyone,

Hope you’re managing to make it through this heat wave that eastern Carolina seems to be experiencing.  I have to say that I’m not a huge fan of this type of oppressive weather.  I’m more of a cold weather fan myself.

If you’ve noticed, all of us here at Channel 9 have tried to keep you “in the loop” on how this weather may affect you over the course of this week.  That’s included extensive Storm Team 9 weather coverage, consumer information on how you can beat the heat that this is going put on your wallet, tips on staying cool, and incorporating the Storm Team in our news and weather webcasts.

If you’ve not yet had the opportunity, I encourage you to sign up for our Nine On Your Side “Text Alerts”.  They’re a great way to get breaking weather and news information delivered straight to your cell phone.  It’s free and easy to do.  All you have to do is click here!

While on the subject of text alerts, would you be interested in an instant alert that tells you when our news and weather webcasts are updated throughout the day?  I’ve noticed that you guys frequent the website in droves when you learn of breaking news like the Ricky Stokes story on Monday and again on Tuesday when our Afternoon webcast focused almost exclusively on the soaring temperatures. 

This is your chance to have your say!  You tell me what you want and when you want it.  What other things would you like to see on WNCT.com?

Let me know and I’ll work on getting it there for you!

Thanks for visiting!

Geo