Forecasting_With_Phillip
Join Phillip Williams as he discusses weather in Eastern North Carolina
By Phillip Williams | Posted Thursday, September 06, 2007

Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.

It’s been quite a waiting game.  Will the low pressure off the coast develop into a tropical system or not?  I think it is raising my blood pressure!

One thing interesting about the computer models that I use to forecast with is that they are notoriously bad at forecasting with a weak tropical systems.  If this low pressure strengthens, then these models will likely be better at forecasting where it will go.  Until then, I just get more gray hair.

So, this leaves the weekend forecast wide open.  I’ve told our newsroom that there area basically five options.  Here they are:
1.  The system fizzles out or stays out to sea.
2.  A tropical storm brushes our coast.
3.  A tropical storm hits.
4.  A hurricane brushes our coast.
5.  A hurricane hits.

I think #5 looks less and less likely as there is plenty of dry air between us and this system.

Why has this system has such a tough time getting started?  Well, the answer is two fold.  The system has had strong upper level winds blowing over the top of it.  This wind shear prevents storms from forming and staying around the center.  The second reason for the lack of development is the dry, stable air to the north and west of the center.  That is the same airmass that is over us now and giving us a warm, dry days and pleasant nights.

The good news is that we will know more about the future of this system Friday.  These low level cloud swirls cannot survive very long without some storms to form near them.  My fingers are crossed that it dies out.  I know, you probably want it to rain.  Many people do including myself, but I really don’t want a hurricane or tropical storm.  I would much prefer a slow moving cold front which is possible for next Wednesday and Thursday.

Feel free to comment!

Phillip Williams

By Phillip Williams | Posted Wednesday, September 05, 2007

I’m Phillip Williams, Chief Meteorologist of WNCT’s Storm Team 9. 

As of Wednesday night, the low pressure area is located about 600 miles southeast of the NC coast.  It has yet to acquire tropical characteristics, but most computer models show it will soon.  If it strengthens as expected, it will become “Gabrielle.”

The models show the storm coming to the near the NC coast over the weekend before turning to the northeast.  Some of the models bring this storm up to a significant hurricane.  Stay tuned for details.

If this system doesn’t develop, then the hot dry days will continue through the weekend.

By Phillip Williams | Posted Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Hello, I’m Phillip Williams, Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist.

Storm chasing is a dangerous, yet thrilling adventure for those trained in meteorology.  Much can be learned about the science of the atmosphere while chasing storms at a safe distance.  However, the risk can be great and I certainly don’t advise anyone doing this.

Here in Eastern North Carolina, the threat is greater than in some other parts of the country.  Here are some reasons why:

1.  We have more trees here than in the plains states, so it is more difficult to see storms on the horizon.  Storms can form very close to you since it is more difficult to see them.
2.  Tornadoes in North Carolina are often shrouded by rain.  This makes them more difficult to see and thus dangerous to a storm chaser in the wrong place.
3.  North Carolina is third in the nation is lightning strike deaths.  Many storms in the midwest or plains states can be observed from a safer distance because of the terrain and lack of tall trees.
4.  Rural highways in our state often twist and turn, so trying to evade a dangerous storm becomes more dangerous if you aren’t very familiar with the roads.  Many roads in the midwest and plains states are straight.

Our Laila Muhammad interviewed a storm chaser who worked on the movie “Twister.” You can find this story among other top stories here at wnct.com.

By Phillip Williams | Posted Wednesday, August 22, 2007

I’m Phillip Williams, the Chief Meteorologist here at WNCT channel 9.

As some of you probably know, I grew up in Eastern North Carolina and I’ve wanted to be a meteorologist since I was about 6 years old.  I ‘ve heard a lot of folklore weather tales over the years.  My Grandfather Williams used to teach me the signs around us to help me make a forecast.  One thing I found particularly interesting was his story about the relationship between the number of fogs in August and the number of winter snows.

He said that you should count the number of fogs in August and that would be the number of snows that following winter.  I wonder if the real treat here is that you kinda forget how many fogs there were by the time winter is over?  Anyway, I’ve heard this old saying from others too, so it is well known around these parts.

How many fogs have you seen in August? With my late night schedule, I don’t see any morning fogs.  I see lots of frogs, but not many fogs. haha

What do you think of this saying?

Phillip Williams

By Phillip Williams | Posted Monday, August 20, 2007

Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.

While we are having another heat wave this week, the tropics are continuing their hot ways of late, too. 

Hurricane Dean will make landfall on the Yukatan Peninsula tonight.  It has 150 mph winds with gusts to 185.  This is a strong category 4 storm and could be a 5, the maximum, when it hits after midnight tonight.

To see a closeup satellite image of Hurricane Dean click here.  For an enhanced closeup satellite loop of Hurricane Dean click here.

This storm appears less likely to have any affect on the United States, but will be devastating to parts of Mexico.

Another tropical wave is northeast of Puerto Rico and is moving west northwest.  This system could develop over the next couple of days.  Some of my computer models have this system approaching the Bahamas later this week.  We will watch this one closely here at Storm Team 9.

The next name of the list of names is Felix.  You may remember that Tropical Storm Erin moved into Texas a few days ago.  That storm brought severe flooding to Oklahoma.

Stay cool with our heat wave this week and feel free to comment about this or any other blog.

Phillip Williams

By Phillip Williams | Posted Friday, August 17, 2007

Hello everyone, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.  That isn’t all.  I’m also the commissioner of our channel 9 “On Your Side” fantasy football league.  I have been for years and I have to brag a little.  I have won our superbowl three times out of five trips to the superbowl.

Ok, enough patting myself on the back.  Our draft night is tomorrow night and I need to get serious about who to pick.  We don’t know our draft order until just before we start.  Last yaer I was 8th out of 12.  Yuk!  I won year before last when I picked last.  It’s great being able to get two players at once.

Guess what why team name is?  Well, of course, it’s weather related.  I’m “The Storm.” If you remember back a few years ago we had a weekend meteorologist here named Ben Smith.  Since he moved away, he adopted “The Storm” for his fantasy team name also.  He is now a TV Meteorologist in Orlando, Florida.

Anyway, back to this years draft.  Any good ideas for middle round players?  In our league quarterbacks are worth than other positions, but running backs aren’t far behind.  I had good fortune with Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson last year.  I wanted Antonio Gates at tight end, but he was picked midway in the 6th round.

Take care everyone and good luck with your fantasy football drafts!

Phillip Williams aka The Storm

By Phillip Williams | Posted Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Hello everyone!  I’m Phillip Williams, your Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist.

So, it is almost time to get back to school.  When does your school start? 

If you would like a storm team 9 meteorologist to speak to your class, have your teacher contact WNCT channel 9 at 252.355.8500.  They can also schedule tours of channel 9 by calling that number as well.

Have a great school year!

Phillip Williams

By Phillip Williams | Posted Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Hi!  I’m Storm team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.

Where do you think Tropical Storm Dean is going to go?  Will it make through the Caribbean Sea and enter the Gulf of Mexico?  Will is turn and miss the Caribbean and miss the United States?  Will it hit the East Coast?  North Carolina?

Tell me what you think?

Sure, I have all the computer models and my experience with decades of tracking hurricanes, but I want to hear your thoughts. 

What questions do you have about the steering of hurricanes? 

I await your comments.

Phillip Williams

By Phillip Williams | Posted Friday, August 10, 2007

I would love to hear your report of the storm in your area.  Please comment and tell us where you were and what you experienced from the storms.

The front produced heavy storms Friday that resulted in many storm reports of wind damage.  Two mobile homes were turned over in Edgecombe County.  No injuries came from that.  In Goldsboro, the roof of a motel was torn off.  Trees were down in many counties throughout the East including Edgecombe, Pitt, Martin, Wayne, Lenoir, Craven and Duplin.

Now that the storms have moved through, the heat wave is broken and the weekend will have a return to typical August weather instead of the dangerous heat.  Enjoy!

Phillip

By Phillip Williams | Posted Thursday, August 09, 2007

Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.

Lightning lit up the skies for parts of the East Thursday evening.  Do you know how hot a bolt of lightning is?  Would you believe 30,000 degree?  That is the correct answer!  That is also why lightning makes thunder.  Thunder is the sound of the air exploding.  Thunder is also harmless, so if you or your children are afraid of thunder, don’t be.  Consider thunder a good friend telling you to get inside where it is safe from lightning.

Lightning happens with hot air rises into colder air.  The raindrops are carried high in the cloud where the outer shell of the raindrops begin to freeze.  As they go higher where it is colder the inside of the raindrop freezes next and expands.  That shatters the outer shell of ice into a bunch of little pieces of ice.  The little pieces of ice are positively charged which leaves the rest of frozen droplet negatively charged.  The tiny pieces are carried higher in the cloud because they weigh less.  The next thing you know, you have a cloud that is negative at the lower part and positive at the top.  This seperation of charges gets high enough to cause lightning.

What is interesting is that you feel this happening.  Have you ever been inside with no windows, but you feel a storm is getting closer.  This could be explained by the electrical charges.  Since the lowest part of a storm is negative, then as it approaches, it chases away other negative charges, so objects including people become positively charged.  You may be able to feel this as strands of hair begin to seperate.  If you are ever outside and a storm is approaching and you feel a tingling feeling, lightning may be about to strike.  Get inside right away. 

Our hot weather lately can make thunderstorms grow very tall.  Respect lightning and enjoy the show from the safety of inside your home or car.  Oh yes, lightning can strike cars, but if you are inside the car with the windows closed, then you will be safe.  Inside a home is the best place to be during a storm.

Heat waves are known to create storms with the most vivid lightning.  You can see some amazing lightning pictures at the National Weather Service lightning safety page.

Take care,

Phillip Williams

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