Forecasting_With_Phillip
Join Phillip Williams as he discusses weather in Eastern North Carolina
By Phillip Williams | Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2008

The cold front that moved through Wednesday turned winds so that smoke from the Pocosin National Wildlife Refuge wildfire spread westward.  A dense smoke advisory has been in effect for areas from New Bern to Kinston to Snow Hill to Greenville to Williamston to the Northern Outer Banks.  To avoid the smoke, stay inside.  Check on those with respiratory problems, heart problems, and the elderly and very young.  Also, don’t forget your outdoor pets.  Dense smoke is dangerous for them just as it is for us.  Bring them inside.

Wildfire smoke can travel hundreds of miles.  It is made of very tiny particles about 1/30th the width of a human hair.  It is composed of a variety of gases and water vapor.

Leave your comments and questions about this wildfire smoke here.

By Phillip Williams | Posted Monday, June 09, 2008

Ah yes, I get that question a lot. 

To break down the science behind the heat, we have to talk about high pressure.  Are you bored yet?  Don’t be, it gets better in a minute.  High pressure is sinking air.  When air sinks, it heats up because the compression or squeezing of the air from above increases the temperatures.  It’s like football.  Lost?  Let me explain.  In football, during a tackle, the guys pile on top of each other.  The one on the bottom of the pile feels the pressure from the weight of the ones above.  Depending on his temperment, he may or may not get mad about that, but in the weather, the air at the bottom of the pile, gets hot.

The position of the high pressure can add to the squeeze on the air.  When the high is centered south of us then we get a westerly wind around it.  Hmm...what is west of us?  The mountains, you say?  Ah yes!  When air blows down from the mountains it compresses or is squeezed again because it is coming downhill.  That is an extra way the air heats up.  If you want to get the hottest day possible, have a hot air mass over us and then have a wind coming down from the mountains and then bring a cold front toward us.  Yes, the approach of a “cold” front will give us our hottest day.  Why?  Because then the air is squeezed or compressed from the side too.  The colder air on the way here is heavier and denser than the hot air over us. 

So, to answer the question “why is it so hot,” the answer is: our air gets squeezed by high pressure sinking from above, it gets squeezed from air tumbling down from the mountains and it gets squeezed from the side by the approach of a cold front.  All that compression or squeezing makes the air very hot.  Add to that the heat absorption of asphalt and buildings and you get a very hot pattern.  Humidity in the air holds heat in at night, too.

You want some good news?  The heat wave is about to break.  The second half of this week will not be as hot with no more flirting with 100 degrees.

Feel free to comment or ask questions. 

By Phillip Williams | Posted Tuesday, June 03, 2008


Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.

Washington County is under a State of Emergency this Tuesday Night because of dense smoke from a wildfire in Northwestern Hyde County.  The smoke is drifting north and northeastward and is covering Eastern Washington County, much of Tyrrell County and Northwestern Hyde County.  39 homes in Washington County are being evacuated because of the dense smoke.

Live VIPIR 9 is detecting the smoke.  The lowest level of Live VIPIR 9’s doppler radar beam is around 3900 feet over the fire.  I have tracked several flare ups of smoke this evening.  Areas from Phelps Lake to Creswell to Columbia appear to be the ones with the most smoke.  Visibilities are reduced and driving can be hindered by the thick smoke.  People sensitive to smoke or those with chronic breathing problems should leave the affected areas.  Heading west toward Plymouth or Williamston is a good plan.

I expect the wind direction to remain from the south or southwest the majority of this week.  The winds will pick up Wednesday afternoon before dropping off by Friday.

If you live in these affected areas and want to share your story, please do so here. 

By Phillip Williams | Posted Thursday, May 29, 2008


Hello everyone!  Are you ready to go to the beach?

I think I always answer that question with a “yes.” Here at Storm Team 9 we give a beach forecast for the Crystal Coast both on WNCT channel 9 and here at wnct.com.  You can see it updated on the web everyday.

I got an email asking why the surf temperature changed from 75 when Gannon reported it at noon to 72 when I reported it at 6pm Thursday. 

First, I want to let you know that the surf temperatures are reported to the National Weather Service from several places along the coast.  Along the Crystal Coast, they come from the Beaufort Marine Lab, The Beaufort Inlet Pier, Emerald Isle, and Hammocks Beach State Park.  Not each one reports consistently, but we use the reports that come in to pass on to our viewers.

Today, the report was 75 from the morning and 72 later in the day at Beaufort Marine Lab.  It was 70 at The Beaufort Inlet Pier.  I reported the 72 on our beach forecast on TV. 

The reason for the surf temperature change could be one or all of the following explanations.  The cold front that moved through Wednesday brought cooler air temperatures, rain, and a north to northeast wind.  All three act to cool the surf temperature.  The water temperature changes much slower than the air temperature and there is usually a lag between air and water temperature changes.  That can help explain the water being 75 earlier in the day Thursday and then cooler.  Also, rain water takes a while to reach the inlets and a fresh rain has a cooling affect this time of the year.  A north or northeast wind also brings gradual cooling to the water along the Crystal Coast.  Whenever the water blows off the land it causes the water at the surface to go out to sea.  The water replaces that surface water near the shore comes from below.  Water down deep is cooler than water at the surface.  This process is called upwelling.

If you want warmer surf temperatures, be patient.  It will happen.  In fact, I’m expecting a nice rise in temperatures this weekend as we get a couple of bright days with warmer afternoons and the return of southwest winds.

For you hurricane enthusiasts, the ocean temperature of 79 degrees or warmer to a depth of 75 feet is required to sustain a hurricane.  That is why the Atlantic Hurricane Season corrolates with the time the ocean temperature is that warm somewhere in the Atlantic basin.  It isn’t that warm here yet, but it is in the western Caribbean and the parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

Feel free to comment.

Phillip Williams

By Phillip Williams | Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams. 

Severe Weather has been moving through the East this Tuesday afternoon and evening.  We’ve received storm reports of quarter size hail from Rocky Mount, Williamston, and Havelock.

To see storm reports from our area and the nation from today, go here.

Please send us your storm reports by commenting to the blog.

Thanks,

Phillip

By Phillip Williams | Posted Monday, May 19, 2008

Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.

How do you like our new weather page?  Hopefully, you will find it useful and easier to find the information you seek.  If you have any comments for items you would like to see in addition to what is here, let us know.  We have a web specialist who designs the page and can add items of particular interest. 

Phillip Williams

By Phillip Williams | Posted Friday, May 09, 2008

Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams

You may have been hearing a lot of talk about the possibility of severe weather on Mother’s Day.  Let me break down what may happen for you.

A large low pressure area will be swirling strong winds over the southeastern United States Sunday.  The upper winds will be splitting over our region which means air below must lift to fill the gaps.  When air is lifted is cools and condenses out the moisture into clouds and rain.  What is needed for severe weather is a variety of other things happening.

To get severe weather there needs to be a turning of the wind direction as you go up in the sky.  A warm front lifting over our area Sunday afternoon could provide that.  We could have southeast winds at the surface ahead of this front and southwest winds at about 5,000 feet overhead.  That different wind direction causes the air to spin as air is lifted into showers and storms.  If this wind is strong enough then a tornado threat would result. 

Since the upper low pressure system is made of cold air up high, as it gets closer to us, the chance of hail increases from thunderstorms.  That is another severe threat.  The last severe threat is a wind gust threat from strong storms that take the cold air up high and pull it down to the ground.

What could prevent severe weather on Mother’s Day?  There are several possibilities that would prevent a severe weather outbreak.  First would be a day with total cloud cover and light rain.  That would prevent the temperature at the ground from getting warm enough to lift into taller storms and thus prevent any hail, strong winds, or tornadoes.  Also, if a surface low pressure forms along the coast or off the coast, then the turning of the warm front would remain off the coast and prevent any tornadoes.

If you have any questions, feel free to add them as comments here.  I’m sure others would want to know also.

Thanks,

Phillip Williams

By Phillip Williams | Posted Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.

I have a computer here in the WNCT forecast center that shows the sunrise and sunset times everyday.  It updates automatically.  It shows how each day is having more and more sunlight and thus less and less night.  This is caused because the Earth is in its cycle of leaning the northern hemisphere toward the sun.  It will keep leaning toward the sun until June 21st.  After that it will start leaning back away.  Now, the Earth is an exact circle so the sunrise and sunset times don’t just reverse course on June 21st. 

Actually, the sunset time will reach its latest time a few weeks before June 21st and the sunrise time will reach its earliest time a few weeks after June 21st.  But on the whole, June 21st has the most time of daylight.  You will also have your shortest shadow at midday on June 21st.  You still with me?

Anyway, I’m bringing all this up because the increase in sunlight has a big impact on our weather.  The afternoon heat from the sun will cause more pop up showers and thunderstorms because heat rises and when it hits the cooler air above the Earth it makes the stormy weather.  Trying to forecast exactly where an afternoon shower or t-shower will pop up is like predicting where the first bubble will rise to the top when you are boiling water.  Well, maybe it isn’t that random because there are some triggers that help me determine where it will happen.  For example, the sea breeze front forms when cooler air moves inland on a summer afternoon.  This temperature boundary can assist showers and storms forming.  So, lookout for the “30% of an afternoon t-shower” in the forecast for the next few months.

Phillip Williams

By Phillip Williams | Posted Thursday, May 01, 2008

Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.

I started a boat and beach forecast in late March for the Crystal Coast that includes information on waves, winds, tides, and any advisories like small craft or gale warnings.  For the beach goers, I include information on Rip currents, the UV index, and both air and surf temperature, and sky conditions.

You can find our boat and beach forecast on http://www.wnct.com everyday by clicking webcast and then coming down to the Storm Team 9 one.  (It is usually the last graphic I get to in the webcast that runs about 2 minutes).  The boat and beach forecast is on-air on WNCT channel 9 every Thursday, Friday, and Saturday during Eyewitness News 9 at 6pm and I sometimes include it at 11pm and on the CW at 10pm as well.

I hope you like it and would appreciate any input you have when you see it.  If you like it, then please spread the word to other boaters that Storm Team 9 is “On Your Side” with the boat and beach forecast.

Happy Boating and Beaching,

Phillip Williams

By Phillip Williams | Posted Monday, April 28, 2008

Hi, I’m Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams!

Areas of the East are under a Tornado Watch until 8PM tonight.  Please send me your storm reports here on my blog so I can mention them on-air on Eyewitness News 9.  You can also upload your storm photos to our website for use on-air by entering the Keyword: Snap! right here on WNCT.com!

Thanks,

Phillip

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