Here is the latest look at Hanna and what you can expect in your area.

Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.  Hanna has been slowly getting stronger today and is now up to 70mph winds.  The motion of the storm is northward at 20 mph with an increase in forward speed likely.  The center is 310 miles south of Wilmington with the 2pm hurricane center advisory.  Rain squalls are moving through Eastern North Carolina now and there is a slight risk of isolated tornadoes through tonight.  Winds will not increase over the area until around midnight along the coast and then spread northward after midnight.  The strongest winds for areas such as Onslow, Carteret, Duplin, Pamlico, and Southern Craven will be in the time from 3am until 10am.  The strongest winds for Lenoir, Greene, Pitt, Beaufort, Northern Craven, Hyde, Tyrrell, Dare, Washington, Martin, Edgecombe and Wilson Counties will be between 4am and 11am.  Bertie, Chowan, Halifax, Northampton, and Hertford can expect the strongest winds between 5am and Noon.  Wind gusts will be in the 40 to 70 mph range for coastal locations and 30 to 55 for inland areas. These winds are strong enough for minor wind damage including some trees down, spotty power outages, some shingles off roofs, signs down and other similar wind damage. Rainfall will total between 2 and 4 inches most places with a few getting upwards of 6 inches.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the areas along and west of I-95.  Small streams, creeks, and urban areas are most at risk for minor flooding during the heavy rains.  Area rivers are well below flood stage and should rise, but not present any flooding.  Salt water flooding from wind driven water will be 2 to 4 feet along and within 50 miles east of where Hanna makes landfall.  Expect rises along the Neuse and Pamlico and in New Bern and Washington respectively of 1 to 3 feet.  Belhaven will see 2 to 3 see water rises on the Pungo as southerly winds push water up the river.  Mainland Hyde County from Swanquarter to Engelhard can expect the Pamlico Sound to rise 2 to 3 feet and cause some flooding.  Wanchese can expect similar conditions in Dare County.

Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.  It is Tuesday evening and the latest computer models are putting our area more at risk of a strike from Hanna.  The system is currently a tropical storm over the Southeast Bahamas.  The forecast track by the National Hurricane Center brings this system toward the Carolinas with an increase in strength to a hurricane again.  This system will be picking up forward speed.  That means it will be able to carry more wind inland on the right side of its track.  The worst weather appears to be here Friday Night, but a lot is still up in the air as Hanna has yet to start moving toward us.  A high pressure area over the Atlantic is expected to strengthen and move in from the East.  This is supposed to start moving the storm toward the northwest from the Bahamas.  At the same time, a low pressure area is moving across the country.  The circulation around this feature will help Hanna to pick up forward speed.  Be preparing for a possible hurricane to move over our area from the south late Friday Night.  We can certainly hope that is goes either farther west or farther east, but being prepared is best.  Right now, it looks like the strongest winds would blow from the Southeast and then South and then Southwest.  Secure loose items outside your home.  Take down hanging plants.  Stow patio or porch furniture.  Do the same with trash cans and other items that could be blown around in strong wind.  For those living in low areas that are prone to flooding during heavy rain, consider a plan of action to move to higher ground Friday.  Now for some technical weather stuff for those really into weather.  Hanna has been undergoing upper level wind shear all day Tuesday.  This is why she dropped intensity to a tropical storm.  The upper air pattern needs to exhaust the rising air of a tropical system.  If this exhaust pattern is interrupted, it is like putting a lid on a fire.  The wind shear that has weakened Hanna is expected to subside Wednesday and Thursday and allow Hanna to regain strength.  The water under Hanna will be plenty warm enough to support strengthening as it moves closer to the Carolinas.  Tropical systems need water of 79 degrees or warmer to a depth of 75 feet to sustain a hurricane.  That is a go for strengthening.  The inner core of Hanna will also determine if strengthening is possible.  If the core of the system can reorganize then intensification will be realized quicker.  Feel to ask questions or leave comments.  I’m not going to talk much about Ike or Josephine yet.  Wheh!

It is the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina devastating New Orleans and parts of Mississippi.  Hurricane Gustav is now taking aim on the Gulf Coast and it could become a major hurricane before it reaches the U.S. shore.  In the meantime, Tropical Storm Hanna is northeast of Puerto Rico and is drawing nearer to the U.S. 

Hurricanes require three things to make them strong.
1.  Water temperatures beneath them that are at least 79 degrees to a depth of about 75 feet.
2.  Low pressure that is at least 10 degree latitude north of the equator.
3.  An exhaust system above the storms to carry the rising air away from the center of the storms.

Something that is going to be interesting to watch with Hanna is how she is affected by Gustav.  As Gustav strengthens over the northwestern Carribean Sea and then the Gulf of Mexico, it will be exhausting a lot of air out from it.  These upper level winds will move toward Hanna and could inhibit the outflow of air from Hanna.  If that is the case, Hanna could suffer from this.  I saw this happen with Hurricane Hugo and Hurricane Irene in 1989.  Irene got too close to Hugo and his exhaust put a damper on Irene’s development.  If you are wondering could Hanna weaken Gustav, well, it is possible, but Gustav has the upper outflow already established while Hanna is still in the formative stages.  In fact, Hanna is fighting with an upper low to her west that is causing her to have exhaust only on two of the four sides.  I mentioned this on Thursday and Hanna didn’t strengthen any in the following 24 hours.  Computer models forecast the upper low west of Hanna to weaken which would allow for some strengthening on Hanna over the weekend before it gets closet to Gustav.  Time will tell.

If you have any questions about tropical systems or how they develop, feel free to ask me.  I’ve studied tropical systems since I was in elementary school.  I visited the National Hurricane Center about 25 years ago and it was a great learning experience that only solidified my decision to become a meteorologist.  Ok, enough about me.  Take care and enjoy your Labor Day weekend!

Phillip Williams

Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.  I will use this blog for entries regarding Tropical Storm Fay.  As of this entry, Fay has just crossed Key West, Florida on general northward path.  Max winds are 60mph and South Florida is getting soaked.  The National Hurricane Center forecast track takes the circulation center of Fay toward Jacksonville, Florida by Thursday and then turns the system northwest into Georgia as it weakens to a Tropical Depression.  Of course, much can change between now (Monday) and then.  The reason for the late period change in the forecast track is that high pressure is expected to build down the coast and this will help to steer Fay back to the left of the current motion.  This high pressure is a dry air mass that could very well prevent Eastern North Carolina from getting any rain from Fay.  Winds will increase over the later this week because of the difference between the high and low pressure.  Onshore winds will increase tides and increase the rip threats for swimmers.  As of now, I don’t expect problems from these winds unless Fay does something unexpected.

Stay tuned for later updates and feel free to ask questions or add comments.

Phillip Williams
WNCT Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist

Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams.  The Winterville Watermelon Festival is nearly here.  I will be emceeing the Young Miss, Little Miss, Junior Miss, and Miss Winterville Watermelon Pageants Saturday Night, August 16th, at 7pm at South Central High School.  It is always a fun evening for the young ladies and thier families and friends.  Come on out and support these upstanding young people.  The Queens will ride in the parade the following Saturday at 10am in downtown Winterville.  I will have more information on the actual Watermelon Festival in later comments on this blog.  Fee free to add any of your knowledge about the festival here. 

Have you heard of the dog days of summer?  Well, there is a real reason they are called the dog days and it has to do with a star...not a celebrity star, but a real heavenly body.  Persius, known as the dog star, shines in the sky every August.  Since August is typically a hot month, then over time, the dog star appearance has coincided with hot weather.  Hence, the hot days of August are called the dog days.  So, it really has nothing do with lazy dogs.  Every year our newsroom has a little disagreement about whether a producer can call a hot July day a dog day of summer.  I always say no, save that for August, the real dog days of summer.  Feel free to comment.

How do you like the On Your Side In Your Hometown series we’ve been doing in July?  I can tell you it has fun and informative for me.  I grew in Eastern North Carolina, born and raised in Rocky Mount and then came to Greenville after graduating from NC State in the late 1980’s.  While I’ve travelled all around the area over the years, I still learned a lot about the towns and cities I went live from in July.  I just wrapped up my last city, Greenville, tonight with Allan Hoffman.

The places I was assigned included Atlantic Beach, Morehead City, Hamilton, Swansboro, Oriental, and Greenville.  Here are some things I learned along the way. 

Atlantic Beach began to thrive when they built a bridge from Morehead City.  It was first a toll bridge with a wooden pagoda collection house on the bridge.  The circle at Atlantic Beach got it’s name because people had to keep circling around to find an open parking space.  The circle is actually shaped like a triangle.

Morehead City flourished when the railroad terminus was put there in the 1800’s.  The train from Raleigh would bring visitors to enjoy the water.  The large Atlantic Hotel was a bring draw until it burned down in a blaze of glory.  Morehead City was named after Governor Morehead.  You can learn much more from the friendly people at the History Place on Arendell Street in downtown Morehead City.

Hamilton had its most prominent period during the Civil War.  A confederate fort was just down the Roanoke River from the town.  Boat traffic was big here with steamers coming in from the Albemarle Sound.  Many old homesites continue in Hamilton and the historic preservation of the town is keeping it a history buff’s destination. 

Swansboro is a beautiful town along the White Oak River near where it emptys into the Atlantic Ocean.  This Onslow County town boasts many quant shops and restaurants and is a destination for beach goers who want to shop and stroll the streets.  Ship building put Swansboro on the map and the first steamer built in North Carolina was built in Swansboro by Otway Burns. 

Oriental is known as the sailing capital of North Carolina.  While the town has less than 1000 people it has about 3000 boats.  Oriental is located along the Intracoastal Waterway and is a favorite stop for boaters going up and down the East Coast.  Sailors from all over the world are familar with Oriental.  Sailing regatas are frequent happenings here.  The Neuse River joins the Pamlico Sound just down from Oriental.  The Neuse is the widest river in the United States here. 

Greenville is the hub of business, culture, science, medicine, and education for Eastern North Carolina.  Greenville is the 10th largest city in North Carolina with more than 76,000 people calling this city home.  East Carolina University, the third largest in the state, is continuing to grow with nearly 30,000 students.  University Health Systems of Eastern Carolina is booming with $600 million expansion underway.  The ECU Medical School and Pitt County Memorial Hospital are known worldwide as a place for cutting edge surgical technology including the DaVinci Robot and the Gamma Knife. 

There is so much more to mention, but my fingers are getting tired now.  Feel free to add comments on other tidbits you are aware of or tell me why your town would make a good future destination for On Your Side In Your Hometown.

Sincerely,

Phillip Williams

They say curiosity killed the cat, but it is a great way to learn.  Therefore, I’ve started this blog for those of you that are curious about some aspect of weather or television.  Use this forum as a place to ask questions.  You can ask about all kinds of weather or how we create weather maps or how we produce the weather or anything like that.  Have you ever wondered what makes a hurricane stronger or weaker?  Maybe, you’ve been curious why I can’t wear bright blue on television.  Anyway, ask away. 

I’ll check back here from time to time to see what questions have popped up.  If nothing is asked, then I’ll assume no one is curious anymore. 

Tropical Storm Bertha formed today near the Cape Verde Islands which is just off the west coast of Africa.  Do you remember Hurricane Bertha of 1996?  That was the first hurricane to hit our area in many years and pretty much started the trend of hurricanes hitting the East.  Fran followed later that year then Bonnie arrived in ‘98 and Dennis and Floyd hit us in ‘99. 

The current Bertha is expected to move toward the west northwest over the open Atlantic for several days.  The water temperature below the storm is marginal for development and will actually be just below what is typical for development over the next couple of days.  After that, the system should be over warmer waters.  There is a weakness in the upper air pattern over the central Atlantic that could pick up the storm and keep it well away from land.  If Bertha remains weak, it could miss the central Atlantic upper air pattern.  That would give it a better chance of coming closer to land in about 10 to 14 days.  So, basically, if Bertha strengthens over the weekend, then it will likely turn north well before threatening the US.  If it remains a system, but a weak one, then it has a better chance to at least reach the western Atlantic.

Here are some computer model forecast tracks as seen from wunderground.com.  When you view these computer model tracks, realize that the BAMM is built for storms that are not very deep with thunderstorms.  BAMD is built for storms that are well formed and strong.  LBAR isn’t very reliable.  GFDL does quite well for most storms.  GFS can be a good model, but seems to switch forecasts a lot with weak systems.

There is plenty of time to track Bertha.  Pick up your Storm Team 9 Hurricane Guide at your local Chevrolet dealership.

Phillip Williams

Saturday, June 21st is the beginning of Summer!  We have already seen days above 100 degrees, so this seems anticlimactic.  It will be cooler this first weekend of summer than most of Spring.  Some scattered thundershowers will keep part of this weekend with below average temperatures.

Do you have any good memories of summer?  I do. 

I grew up in Rocky Mount, North Carolina and can remember a lot of fun summers as a kid.  I was one of those kids that loved to get in the mud.  We had a large play area behind my house.  It was the land used for the Fair when it came to town.  When it rained I would get out there and have a ball.  You’re probably wondering if I had sense to get in out of the rain and the answer is no.  My father bought us some oversized umbrellas that were made of a thick coated canvas-like material.  There were great during heavy rain.  As long as it wasn’t thundering, I was outside in the rain, usually without shoes, splashing my way up and down the gutter of the street.  I got a few other kids on my street to join me most of the time.  Sometimes, I think I should splash around now for good stress relief.  haha…

Feel free to share your summer stories here.

Happy Summer everyone!!

Phillip Williams