Forecasting_With_Gannon
Join Gannon Medwick as he discusses weather in Eastern North Carolina
By Gannon Medwick | Posted Friday, February 06, 2009

I recently got a viewer email with a series of questions regarding the jet stream:

The jet stream plays a big role in weather, but what controls the movement of the jet stream?  Also, could you add a little more in your forecasts about the jet stream?

Great questions!  Here was my reply:

Viewer,

First, you’re correct.  The jet stream – that super-fast channel of air 35,000 feet above ground – plays a significant role in our weather.  In many ways, however, the jet stream is more of an indicator, or “symptom”, of global weather patterns rather than the sole driver of weather (as it’s often portrayed in weather broadcasts).  In other words, the jet stream’s strength and position is at the mercy of the strength and position of global (or hemispherical) high and low pressure systems.  Everything’s connected!

The second part of your question gets to the heart of my job: How can I give viewers the forecast and how can I best illustrate the reasons why the weather will be whatever it will be?  You’re correct once again: depicting the jet stream can be an ideal way to convey “the weather behind the forecast”.  Sometimes – especially in the transitional seasons of spring and fall – I use a jet stream graphic (I might use one this week with the big warm-up on the way, actually!).  Mostly, though, I prefer to highlight surface weather features (cold and warm fronts, surface highs and low, etc.) to help tell a weather story, since I find these features are more tangible than those in the upper-atmosphere (Example: we feel a temperature drop and a wind shift with a cold frontal passage, but we can’t easily see or feel fluctuations in jet stream winds).

Gannon Medwick
Storm Team 9 Meteorologist

Thanks for checking into my blog!

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Thursday, February 05, 2009

No joke!  February 5 is National Weatherpersons’ Day (I think I’ll have to remind my wife again this year).  Here is a brief history of National Weatherpersons’ Day as written by the National Weather Service:

Thursday, February 5 is National Weatherperson’s Day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1744. Jeffries, one of America’s first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston in 1774 and he took the first balloon observation in 1784. This is a day to recognize the men and women who collectively provide Americans with the best weather, water, and climate forecasts and warning services of any nation.

Thanks for checking into my blog!

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Wednesday, February 04, 2009

A “clipper” low pressure system deposited a quick snowfall on Eastern Carolina the morning of Wednesday, February 4.  Most areas received the dusting to two inches we expected, but some localized areas (especially around the junction of Highways 264 and 258) received a little more:

Fountain: 3”
Saratoga: 3”
Tarboro: 2.5”
Hamilton: 2”
Pantego: 2”
Vanceboro: 2”
Farmville: 1.5”
Goldsboro: 1.5”
Williamston: 1”
Columbia: 1”
Windsor: .5”
Edenton: .5”
Greenville: Dusting
Deep Run: Dusting
Moss Hill: Dusting
Kenansville: Dusting
Plymouth: Dusting
Richlands: Dusting
Ponzer: Dusting
Sladesville: Dusting
Emerald Isle / Bogue Banks: Snowflakes w/ No Accumulation

Feel free to reply to this blog with your snow reports!

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Here are snow totals from the Tuesday, January 20, 2009 winter storm.  The numbers match very well with Storm Team 9’s 2” - 4” locally 5”+ forecast!

La Grange: 6” (thanks to a WNCT viewer for this report and another viewer who recorded 6.5”!)
Engelhard: 5.5”
Bear Grass: 5.5”
Institute: 5”
Fairfield: 5”
Greenville: 4”
Washington: 4”
Kinston: 4” (3” measured at a WNCT viewer location)
Williamston: 4” (thanks, WNCT viewer!)
Winterville: 4”
Columbia: 4”
Snow Hill: 3.5”
Plymouth: 3.5”
Bayboro: 3.5”
Swanquarter: 3.5”
Haw Branch / Jacksonville: 3”
Nags Head / Kitty Hawk: 3”
New Bern: 2.5”
Trenton: 2.5”
Kenansville: 2.5”
Morehead City / Beaufort: 2”
Newport: 1”
Salter Path: 1” (thanks, WNCT viewer!)

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Flakes are flying outside of the Channel 9 Studios!  As I type, the time is 9:15am and I estimate we’ve around 1/2 inch of snow so far.  It’s whitening the ground nicely!  Other regional snow reports include:

3 inches in Raleigh
2 inches in Wilson
1/2 inch in Kinston

We’re just getting started!  Inland areas will receive more snow today and some coastal areas that have yet to see snow will shortly.  If you measure the snow at your location, feel free to post your total here on my blog or send me an email at .

Enjoy the wintry weather and thanks for checking into wnct.com!

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Friday, January 16, 2009

Overnight lows in the teens and 20s were realized Thursday night and early Friday morning.  Here is a list:

16 at Ahoskie
16 at Washington
16 at Greenville (airport)
18 at Greenville (Channel 9 Studios)
19 at Kinston
19 at New Bern
21 at Jacksonville
22 at Morehead City

Stay warm this Friday!  I don’t expect afternoon temperatures to climb above freezing.

Thanks for checking into part 3 of my ongoing Cold Snap Blog!

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Thursday, January 15, 2009

I received a well-written email regarding the affects frigid temperatures have on animals.  The writer makes excellent points and, considering the upcoming cold snap, I feel it prudent to pass his message onto you:

Hey Gannon:

Please use your considerable public influence to advocate for the safety and well-being of animals during the current cold snap.  No animals in our area (be they pets or livestock) are acclimated to the intense cold that we are or will be experiencing over the next few days.

Of particular concern for outdoor animals is an adequate supply of fresh drinking water.  They, of course, cannot drink water that’s frozen and outdoor water supplies will freeze quickly; therefore, replenishing drinking water supplies several times a day is essential.

All outdoor pets should be brought inside when the temperature dips below freezing for several hours.  Those that cannot be brought inside should have an enclosed shelter area or house equipped with plenty of warm bedding.  A deep supply of fresh dry wheat straw is very good bedding.  They should also be given more than the usual amount of nutritious food to help them generate body heat.

Shelter, bedding and extra food is also essential for large animals such as cows, horses and goats as well as other animals.

The intense cold puts small, short-haired, sickly and newborn animals in great peril.  Those animals can actually die a horrible death as a result of inadequate care during a day or night of sub-freezing temperatures.

Some people may believe that domestic animals have some sort of magic way to survive under adverse conditions but please know that none in our area are equipped to handle the harsh coldness that we face right now.  Please remember that we are the only ones our animals have to depend upon for their protection.  Please do what you can in that regard.

Sincerely,

John Spence

Thanks John!

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Exceptionally cold weather remains in the Storm Team 9 Forecast for Thursday night through Saturday as an arctic high pressure system builds into the eastern United States.  Here is my Eastern Carolina temperature forecast for the period:

Thursday Night: lows in the 10s and 20s

Friday: highs in the upper 20s and low 30s

Friday Night: lows 12 to 18 except near 22 coast

Saturday: highs in the low to mid 30s

Most of East North Carolina will experience 36 to 48 hours of sub-freezing temperatures!  When preparing for and enduring frigid weather:

- Protect exposed pipes in and around your home.  Disconnect all garden hoses.

- Winterize your car.

- Make sure your home and automobile heating system is in proper working order.

- Check on the old and very young.

- Care for pets.

Middle and latter January is climatologically the coldest portion of the year, but even still, average high temperatures are around 50 degrees and average lows are around 30 degrees.  So, the Storm Team 9 Forecast for late this week reflects temperatures that will be 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal averages!

The last time daytime high temperatures were at 32 degrees or lower was:

- 1 / 19 / 05 at Greenville (high was 32 degrees)

- 1 / 18 / 05 at New Bern (high was 29 degrees)

- 1 / 18 / 05 at Hatteras (high was 29 degrees)

- 12 / 14 / 05 at Raleigh (high was 31 degrees)

With a once-in-a-few-years type cold snap coming, here are some ways you might save a little energy on home heating:

- If all else is equal and you have a choice, choose to run large appliances during the coldest periods (Friday) rather than less cold periods (Thursday, by comparison).  Excess heat the appliances generate will take a bit of the burden off your home heating unit.

- Open drapes and blinds on south-facing windows on cold, sunny days like this coming Friday.  Natural sunlight and warmth will take a bit of the burden off your home heating unit.

- Let warm bathwater stand before draining.  Heat from the bathwater will translate to the air in your home and take a bit of the burden off your home heating unit (better than letting the heat “go down the drain”!).

Thanks for checking into my blog!  Check back for any cold snap follow-ups I may post!

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Monday, January 05, 2009

So far in this young year of 2009, 0.18” of rain has fallen in the WNCT “backyard” rain gauge.  Elsewhere in Eastern Carolina, New Bern has officially had only 0.01” of rain since the 01 / 01 / 09.  These totals will swell in the next 24 to 72 hours!

Our first shot at widespread showers will occur late Monday night into the first half of Tuesday.  A cold front will sag southward across Eastern Carolina from Virginia, stall, and then lift back northward as a warm front in this time.  This front will focus ample atmospheric moisture into widespread showers.  Rain amounts will likely range from 0.25” in the Jacksonville - Beaufort area to as much as 1.25” near the Virginia state line - potentially a healthy soaking!

Next, a new cold front will sweep into and across Eastern Carolina during the day Wednesday.  This second front will bring its own round of showers - some heavy - and even some thunderstorms.  Widespread rain amounts of 0.50” or greater will be possible with this frontal passage - potentially another healthy soaking!

Thanks for checking into my blog.  Stay with Storm Team 9 through this unsettled weather week!

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Wednesday, December 31, 2008

From an ongoing drought to the massive and smoky Evans Road Wildfire to Tropical Storm Hanna, 2008 has been another challenging year to forecast the weather in Eastern North Carolina.  Thanks for depending on your Storm Team 9 forecast through it all!

Amid the forecasting challenges, 2008 was a good year for the Storm Team 9 3-Degree Guarantee.  My January to December record was 214 correct forecasts out of 227 forecast opportunities - a 94% success rate!  Our Chief Meteorologist, Phillip Williams, also forecasted with greater than 90% accuracy on the year.  I hope you’ve had a chance to see our Weekend Meteorologist, Von Gaskin (who joined our team toward the end of this year) bring some great - and certainly - accurate forecasts to you as well.

Happy 2009, viewers and web surfers, and thanks again for depending on your Storm Team 9 forecast in 2008! 

Gannon Medwick
Storm Team 9 Meteorologist

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