Today my 3-Degree Guarantee high is a blistering 100 inland!  Though I can explain why today will be so hot with relative ease, actually arriving at a forecast of 100 degrees must be done cautiously.  Many weather factors can derail a 100 degree day…

Cloud Cover and Rain:  There’s no better way to cool a day than with clouds and showers.  I must be sure that clouds and showers – if they develop – will do so late enough in the day so as not to preclude the temperatures from soaring to 100.  Though I do have a stray thunderstorm in my forecast, I think any such activity will hold off until after 3 or 4 o’clock.  By that time, the temperatures will already have had a chance to soar.

Dry Ground vs. Wet Ground:  I spoke of the effect soil moisture has on temperature in a previous blog.  Despite widely-scattered showers recently, soil moisture is generally low courtesy a dry summer.  All else equal, having dry ground favors hotter weather because the sun’s energy can efficiently heat dry ground – and thus the air above it.  Wet ground can derail 100 degree weather (Dallas, TX has had an extremely wet summer and has had no 100 degree days this year.)

Climatology:  100 degree days, though not unheard of, are rare in summer.  In forecasting a 100 degree day, I need to respect climatology and forecast 100 with care.  Average highs are in the upper 80s and low 90s for Eastern North Carolina in early August.

After careful analysis, I think these roadblocks will not be present today, so 100 degrees looks probable!  Take care out there.  Heat index values will reach a dangerous 110 inland; 100-105 near the coast.

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

This week’s heat wave will likely yield high temperatures well into the 90s to near 100.  But when you watch my forecasts this week, look for me to pay special attention to the heat index as much as, if not more than, the blistering temperatures.

Heat index – that is, the perceived temperature when the actual air temperature is combined with the effects of high humidity – will be nearing 110 Tuesday and Wednesday!  These levels are critical and dangerous.  Take precautions to stay cool and hydrated at all possible times and make sure to check on those most vulnerable in heat waves: children, the elderly, and pets. 

You will also see an attention-grabbing “100” posted for the high temperature for Tuesday and Wednesday.  If the actual temperature “only” makes it to 98 or 99, I won’t sweat it (pun somewhat intended)!  Tuesday and Wednesday will be extremely and dangerously hot days, regardless of whether the actual air temperature attains three digits or falls just shy.  Either way, you can bet the heat index will have three digits – so please plan accordingly and stay safe!

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

Adding weekend rain chances to my forecasts always comes with some trepidation.  It’s the weekend!  You probably don’t want it to rain.  I don’t want it to rain.  But if it might rain, it might rain.  I have to call it as I see it (even if it doesn’t look as pretty on the 7-Day).

This weekend, you’ll notice a new 20% chance for thunderstorms on the Sunday panel of the 7-Day Forecast.  It appears that the high pressure system that has brought and will continue to bring hot and dry weather may give up a little ground late Sunday.  Some forecast models I look at are starting to more strongly suggest that thunderstorms may develop in the Ohio Valley and move southeast – around the high – into VA and NC at that time. 

So, though I still feel most places in Eastern NC will have a completely dry, hot weekend, some needed raindrops may just be able to sneak into the picture later Sunday and Sunday night.  As always, please stay tuned!

Feel free to respond to this blog!  Which day of the week do you most enjoy rain and why?  Does it even matter?  At this point in a dry 2007, would you be happy with rain of any kind?  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

Observing morning temperatures recently, I feel like I’ve been watching a limbo contest.  “How low can they go?”  Pretty low, actually…

In the midst of a week with increasing high temperatures, morning low temperatures have been generally decreasing each day.  Reasons for this seemingly curious dichotomy include dry air and dry ground.  Substances with low moisture content tend to heat up fast and cool down fast.  You can bet we’ll have hot high temperatures for the next several days as the August sunshine will boost afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.  But for the next few nights, I expect temperatures to cool way down to the 60s for lows inland.

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

90s are in the Storm Team 9 forecast for inland highs for the next several days.  I could simply call that “hot” and call it day – but not all 90s are created equal!

My forecast includes reasonably low humidity levels for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Compared to what could occur in early August (say, 95 degrees with a heat index of 105), my forecast for Wednesday through Friday has inland highs in the low and mid 90s with a heat index about the mid 90s, too.  I predict that even the most ardent of cool weather fans must concede that, for August, things could be worse!

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

If you are planning to spend time at our beautiful beaches later this week, I will be with you in spirit!  I will be working – inland – where daytime temperatures will at least reach the lower 90s from Thursday right through this weekend.

Storm Team 9 has been telling you about an approaching “upper-level ridge of high pressure” in our forecasts.  Think of an upper-level ridge as a pocket of very warm air high in the atmosphere.  As a forecaster, I have come to appreciate how effective these features are in preventing daytime clouds and showers from developing, and in August, lots of sun = sizzling heat! 

At the beach, breezes off the marginally cooler ocean will help a little.  You can bet I’ll be imagining cool ocean breezes as I mow my grass this weekend.  Happy August!

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

I’ve found that the two most frequently asked morning weather questions are “Will it rain today?” and “What will the high temperature be?”  Today’s answers are “Yes.” and “88.”  Though the questions and answers may seem unrelated, they’re actually highly dependent on one another.

Because I expect showers and thunderstorms to become widespread early this afternoon, I don’t expect temperatures to climb after that time.  I foresee temperatures in the upper 80s early this afternoon, so I’ve made 88 my 3-Degree Guarantee forecast high.  Summertime temperatures are extremely dependent on rainfall patterns.  For my temperature forecast of 88 to work out, I will need showers and thunderstorms to become widespread around the early afternoon.  If storms develop too early, temperatures may be held down.  If they develop too late, temperatures may get a chance to climb higher than my forecast.  Fingers are crossed…

You can track showers and thunderstorms with Live VIPIR 9 here at wnct.com (keyword: VIPIR).  Tomorrow morning, you can come here or tune to Channel 9 to see if I reached my 3-Degree Guarantee high of 88.

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

Creating a weather forecast involves many, many variables, and some may surprise you.  Did you know that the water content of soil greatly affects air temperature? 

Sunshine can heat dry soil (and the air above it) quickly.  For wet soil, however, much of the daytime sun’s energy goes into evaporating the soil water instead of heating it.  I considered soil moisture in my forecast for today.  Since we’ve had very little rain for over a week, soils are running dry and should heat well today, so 92 is my 3-Degree Guarantee high for inland areas.  (Yesterday, I forecasted 88 for a high, and the 3-Degree Guarantee almost got away from me as we hit 91.  I think if I had more heavily weighted the dry soil in my forecasting process I could have gotten closer!)

So, yes, among the variables a forecaster must consider… is dirt!

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

One step outside this morning and I knew it had returned – the typical summertime “muggies”.  After several mornings featuring relatively dry, crisp air, Atlantic moisture has built back to the point that we can feel it!  I often base the headline of a forecast graphic on what I notice when I step outside in the morning.  I figure that if I notice it, you probably will, too.  My graphical forecast for today bears the headline “Warm & Muggy”.

You may be hoping that some of this moisture could eventually feed some needed rain showers.  I do expect some widely-scattered showers today and Friday, but better rain chances Saturday as a trough of low pressure approaches Eastern NC.  Look for Storm Team 9 to focus on this trough – and how it will utilize all of our muggy air help focus showers and thunderstorms – in our forecasts here on the web and on TV. 

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

Time flies, doesn’t it?  My 7-Day Forecast this morning goes all the way to the end of July!  But before the traditionally sultry month of July slips away, I thought it might be a good time to look back on a month that gave us a few enjoyable breaks from the intense heat. 

Eastern North Carolina was visited by not one, but two Canadian air masses this July (rare summer treats!).  Let’s look back on some of these nice days…

July 2:  high 82, low 62, low humidity, clear skies

July 3:  high 83, low 63, low humidity, clear skies

July 21:  high 84, low 68, low humidity, partly sunny skies

July 22:  high 84, low 62, low humidity, clear skies

Will August bring uninterrupted, sweltering heat?  We can only wait and see.  I can say that Storm Team 9 expects seasonable warmth for the rest of this month with daily high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. 

Feel free to respond to this blog.  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon