Today, September 10, one day after Tropical Storm Gabrielle made a visit to Eastern Carolina, is the statistical “peak” of Atlantic Hurricane Season.  This is the “heart of the heart” of the season.  It’s extremely rare to have any less than 1 or 2 tropical cyclones operating in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean Sea on September 10 of any given year.  Gabrielle – still churning just to the east of our state as a tropical depression – counts today. 

Since all corners of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic have given life to hurricanes during the first and second week of September, this is the time of year that forecasters like me can’t turn our backs on any tropical wave or disturbance.  History tells us to expect action!  Today, as you watch Storm Team 9’s forecasts, expect us to speak about Gabrielle and another disturbance in the Atlantic Basin (in the central tropical Atlantic).  It’s conceivable that this feature might ultimately develop into the next Atlantic tropical storm.

Feel free to respond to my blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

I and my fellow Storm Team 9 Meteorologists have been closely monitoring a swirling area of low pressure offshore all week.  Upper-level winds had been tearing it apart (wind shear is not good for a developing tropical storm), but now, wind shear appears to be relaxing.  Satellite images I’ve been showing you on TV this morning show the results of these laxing winds: thunderstorms building back toward the center of low pressure.  This is important.  A storm system cannot begin to grow tropically until thunderstorms form near the center of low pressure.  Perhaps… the low has survived the wind shear.  The low will need to take advantage of the lower shear environment to grow today.  Storm Team 9 will be watching closely for this.

Regardless of the ultimate classification (tropical, non-tropical or otherwise) or intensity of this low pressure system, I’ve got to hand it to the computer forecast models for generating a consistent track for the low.  That’s the reason we’re so interested - the track of the low is still in our general direction!  The models have only slightly pushed back the timetable for potential rain and wind impacts for Eastern Carolina.  Saturday looks quieter in Eastern Carolina than it did a couple of days ago.  It now appears that, if we’re to see any impacts, they’d be on Sunday or even Monday.

You can be sure of this: Storm Team 9 will monitor this very closely!  Stay with us…

Here’s what I know:

a. A tropical storm has not yet formed off our coast.  A weak area of low pressure with some potential for development continues to be torn apart by wind shear.

b. A great many reliable computer forecast models still develop this system, and soon.  Most still suggest the system, be it a tropical storm or hurricane, will come back toward the Carolina Coast this weekend.

It’s a truly difficult forecast!  I must believe in what I can’t yet see.  Or, at least, I must alert you, my viewers, to a potential high impact weather event that hasn’t even developed yet.  So often in Atlantic Hurricane Season, a tropical storm will form, and the primary forecast challenge is determining its track (which can be challenging enough!).  This potential tropical storm poses two forecast challenges:

a. Can it develop, and when?

b. Will it really track toward us like so many models suggest?

A few blogs ago, I explained the importance of “agreement” between different computer weather forecast models.  If different computer models create the same weather forecast picture, I, a human forecaster, can be more confident that said forecast picture will become reality. 

I am starting to see more agreement from the computer models regarding the eventual track of the offshore storm system we’re watching closely.  Here are some of those solutions:

The latest GFS, an American model, takes a tropical storm or hurricane near the Outer Banks (but just offshore) by Saturday.

The latest U.S. Navy Model, the NOGAPS, takes a tropical storm or hurricane toward Georgia or South Carolina early this weekend.

The United Kingdom, Canadian, and European global forecast models also bring impacts from a tropical storm or hurricane to the Carolina Coasts this weekend.

It’s important to note that these forecast models can change drastically between each model run.  I will be looking for model-to-model and run-to-run consistency to become more confident in a forecast.  Please stay with Storm Team 9 for the rest of this week as we get a clearer picture for the fate of any potential tropical system.  If a tropical storm or hurricane does form, its name would be Gabrielle.

Environmental officials recently noted a kill of freshwater fish on the Lower Neuse River - most likely caused by an excess of salt water in the environment.  Weather is to blame!  The Neuse is running low because rain has been lacking in recent weeks, so there’s less freshwater to push away saltwater from the nearby sound.  Also, a persistent east and northeast wind flow has physically pushed Pamlico Sound saltwater up the Neuse.  Unfortunately, I do not forsee the weather to bring relief from this issue.  I expect a high pressure system centered in the Mid Atlantic States to deliver dry weather and a light east and northeast wind to persist Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

I often forecast showers and thunderstorms when cold fronts approach and/or move through Eastern North Carolina, and for good reason.  Cold fronts represent a drop in air pressure and a shift/convergence of low-level winds and are thus good triggers for showers.  This weekend will feature an exception to this rule of thumb.  The cold front that will move through our area tonight and tomorrow will not likely trigger many showers.

The reason for the relatively dry frontal passage: winds.  Because I expect a light northerly wind flow today, I expect little moisture to be available for the formation of needed showers when the front arrives tonight.  I’d much more like to see southerly winds in advance of the front.  Such winds would bring moisture from the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Ocean into Eastern Carolina and thus better “set the table” for showers and thunderstorms when the front does arrive. 

When you watch the Storm Team 9 forecast going into this weekend, you’ll notice us highlight a small chance of rain tonight and tomorrow.  The chance exists because of the front, but because the front is moisture starved, the chance is, again, small!  The drought rolls on…

Weather, doesn’t always obey our calendar, but it might this weekend!  My forecast for today and tomorrow - the final days of August - is for inland temperatures to reach near 90 degrees.  For this weekend (the first three days of September, including Labor Day Monday), temperatures will only reach the middle 80s as a fresh push of northerly winds brings cooler air to us.  Look for Storm Team 9 to highlight the cold front - that is, the leading edge of the cooler and drier air - in our forecasts on TV and here on the web. 

How about you?  Are you ready for cooler temperatures?  Lower energy bills?  Feel free to respond to my blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

I was working the morning, two years ago, that powerful Hurricane Katrina roared onto the Gulf Coast.  The storm was truly surreal in that its structure was so textbook perfect and so large in size.  Seeing Katrina with VIPIR was awe-inspiring, yet sobering, as I knew that under the colors of the radar and satellite data, real, tangible devastation was happening.  Survivors of Hurricane Floyd might have a special perspective on the plight of Katrina victims as the horrible flooding from Katrina, as in Floyd, fully materialized some time after the storm itself passed.  In North Carolina it was the rivers; in Louisiana, breached levees.  Good people are still trying to rebuild an honest living along the Gulf Coast and they still need our physical help and prayers.

I am thankful that no tropical storms or hurricanes threaten the U.S. Coast, or any place in the Atlantic Basin, this morning.  A weak low pressure system a couple hundred miles southeast of North Carolina may develop tropically in the next 24 or 48 hours, but the system - whether it develops or not - will not directly affect our forecast.  Far into the Atlantic, a westbound tropical wave may get a chance to organize and develop in the next day or two, but it hasn’t happened yet.  Click to our online Hurricane Center or join us on Eyewitness News 9 for tropical forecasts and information.

Of the three main components to a weather forecast - temperature, sky cover, and wind - I admit wind sometimes takes a back seat to the others.  On a given day, you might catch me giving a quick one-line forecast like “Today will be partly cloudy with a high of 87.“  Not today!  My forecast for today: partly cloudy, high 87, northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

Hey, that northeast breeze is be important!  Northeast winds bring air from the cool Labrador Ocean Current into Eastern North Carolina, so it’s hard to get a really hot day with a northeast wind flow - even in August.  Hence, I think our high temperatures will not exceed the 80s this afternoon, and I also think you’ll find the breeze a nice addition to an overall beautiful day.

Thanks for checking in!  Feel free to respond to this blog.  I look forward to reading your comments.

I’m including scattered thundershowers in my forecast for today.  These thundershowers will bring us the “best kind” of rain: needed rain that’s not accompanied by severe winds or hail. 

Indeed, thundershowers, by definition, contain lightning - always a dangerous hazard.  But today’s thundershowers will grow into an atmosphere that

feature strong jet stream winds or cold upper-level air.  Factors like these can contribute to the growth of severe thunderstorms, so it’s good to have them not present.  Of course, Storm Team 9 will closely monitor every thunderstorm that manages to form today (just in case!). 

Please tune to Eyewitness News 9 at Noon and Six for the latest on any showers or thundershowers that may be happening.  Of course, Live VIPIR 9 is always available on this web site at keyword: VIPIR.