Of the three main components to a weather forecast - temperature, sky cover, and wind - I admit wind sometimes takes a back seat to the others.  On a given day, you might catch me giving a quick one-line forecast like “Today will be partly cloudy with a high of 87.“  Not today!  My forecast for today: partly cloudy, high 87, northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

Hey, that northeast breeze is be important!  Northeast winds bring air from the cool Labrador Ocean Current into Eastern North Carolina, so it’s hard to get a really hot day with a northeast wind flow - even in August.  Hence, I think our high temperatures will not exceed the 80s this afternoon, and I also think you’ll find the breeze a nice addition to an overall beautiful day.

Thanks for checking in!  Feel free to respond to this blog.  I look forward to reading your comments.

I’m including scattered thundershowers in my forecast for today.  These thundershowers will bring us the “best kind” of rain: needed rain that’s not accompanied by severe winds or hail. 

Indeed, thundershowers, by definition, contain lightning - always a dangerous hazard.  But today’s thundershowers will grow into an atmosphere that

feature strong jet stream winds or cold upper-level air.  Factors like these can contribute to the growth of severe thunderstorms, so it’s good to have them not present.  Of course, Storm Team 9 will closely monitor every thunderstorm that manages to form today (just in case!). 

Please tune to Eyewitness News 9 at Noon and Six for the latest on any showers or thundershowers that may be happening.  Of course, Live VIPIR 9 is always available on this web site at keyword: VIPIR.

When it comes to rain in the Eastern U.S. this summer, it’s an extreme case of “haves” and “have-nots”.  A strong high pressure system bakes the Southeast in extreme heat and drought all while preventing drenching thunderstorms to move out of the soggy Midwest.

As you watch Storm Team 9’s forecasts this weekend, look for us to talk about a Midwestern cold front that has a chance to break down the Southeastern high.  Accordingly, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase - while temperatures decrease - early next week.

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.  Also, I’m curious.  Are you following recommendations to conserve water?  If so, how do you conserve it in your home or business?

Recently I was asked whether Dean would retain its name if it crossed Mexico and entered the eastern Pacific Ocean.  It is important to stop here and tell you that the storm will not do so (it’s raining itself to death in the Mexican mountains), but it’s a cool hypothetical question!

The answer:  Yes, a hurricane or tropical storm can retain its Atlantic name if it crosses into the Pacific so long as it remains an in-tact tropical storm through the journey across land.  If the storm weakens to just a remnant low pressure system, then moves to the Pacific and strengthens back into a tropical storm, it would earn a new Pacific name. 

You will notice a period of relative quietness as Storm Team 9 tracks the tropics on the news today.  No tropical storm formation is expected for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico today.

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

After walking a fine line with the 3-Degree Guarantee yesterday – I forecasted 98 and we hit 101 (yeesh!) – this morning offered another challenging temperature forecast. 

Today, the challenge comes with a stationary front that will be draped across Eastern Carolina.  This front will divide the very hot air mass (that was with us all yesterday) and a slightly cooler air mass building in from the north and east.  Most places will top out in the still hot lower to mid 90s, so I’m making my 3-Degree Guarantee 93, but many spots will be much warmer or cooler than this number.  North and east of Plymouth, I expect highs in the 80s.  South and west of Goldsboro, I expect a few upper 90s in the mix.  With such a large gradient in temperature, should the front set up in a spot even slightly different than expected, the temperature scheme across the East will be much different.

I’ll be cheering for that 3-Degree Guarantee high of 93 to verify!  I’m sure we’ll all be cheering for temperatures lower than yesterday’s 101, anyway.

This morning I witnessed terrible history as Category 5 Hurricane Dean roared onto the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.  Dean featured sustained winds higher than 160mph.  Let’s keep people in that area in our thoughts and prayers.

Rare is it for a Category 5 storm to make landfall at that strength, so Dean joins an elite club of hurricanes.  Camille, in 1969, hit Mississippi.  Gilbert, in 1988, hit the Yucatan.  Andrew struck South Florida in 1992.  Wilma and Emily raked the Yucatan at Category 4 and 5 strength in 2005.

I hope I never see a Category 5 storm on the Carolina Coast.  Hugo, in 1989, was a 4.  Hazel was a 4 when it roared onto Brunswick County in 1954. 

Take care,

Gannon

All at once: we should lament – and be grateful for – the searing ridge of high pressure that continues to control the Southeast U.S.

The lamenting part is easy.  I am forecasting temperatures to reach the upper 90s (heat index upwards of 105) inland today.  Needed rain will continue to be scarce. 

Why should we be grateful?  Dean’s not coming!  The high pressure ridge might be baking us, but it’s doing a great job of steering dangerous Hurricane Dean – Category 4 as I write – away from the Southeast U.S.  Keep Mexico in your thoughts and prayers today.  They’ll soon feel the brunt of extremely dangerous Dean. 

So, as you watch Storm Team 9, think about the silver lining to the hot forecast: We may be sweating, but at least we won’t feel Dean!

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

I seem to utter the words “We’ll have to wait and see” often in tropical season.  I know it may be unsatisfying to hear uncertainty from your weatherman, by golly, it’s honest!

The uncertainty in forecasting tropical weather events hinges largely on error in computer forecast models and the long timescale of the forecast.  Many of the computer models we forecasters look to for guidance in generating a forecast do reasonably well with mid-latitude weather events but don’t handle tropical weather events as reliably.  Less confidence in a computer model = Less confidence in a forecast = More uncertainty!  Also, the long timescales involved in forecasting tropical events tend to erode forecaster confidence for said events.  Case in point: T.D. 4 (as I write this it is T.D. 4 but it may become Dean later today).  T.D. 4 is so far into the Atlantic, North America wouldn’t even feel its effects (whether it ultimately does at all) for another 7 to 10 days!  Since forecast uncertainty grows with time, long-track tropical weather events can be tricky!  Incidentally, the long range forecast possibilities for T.D. 4, or what will become of it, are wide open.

We invite you to stay with Storm Team 9 as we track T.D. 4 (potentially Dean) and the rest of the tropical season for you!

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

The Atlantic Tropical Storm Season is two and a half months old, but the Cape Verde Tropical Storm Season is just beginning.  This “season within a season”, named for Cape Verde, on the west coast of Africa, begins in the middle of August and lasts through October.  In this season, atmospheric and oceanic conditions become more favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop from clusters of showers and thunderstorms that move off the African coast. 

Today I am tracking one such cluster of thunderstorms – a vigorous westbound tropical wave not far from Cape Verde.  I believe there’s a good chance that this system will develop into the next Atlantic tropical depression within the next day or so.  Look for Storm Team 9 to discuss more possibilities for this feature in our web forecasts and our television broadcasts.

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon

I had a bit of a forecast challenge this morning in deciding which weather “story” would be greater: heat or severe thunderstorms.  In the end, I chose to include both in a headline on my “Today’s Forecast” graphic that reads “Heat / Few Storms”.

We know about the heat part!  I expect an inland high near 100 with a heat index upwards of 120 again today.  This dangerous heat warrants a spot in the headline.  The “Few Storms” part is important too.  Later in this stifling afternoon, thunderstorms will develop as a cold front approaches – and heads up! – some of them could turn severe.  This part of the weather story is headline-worthy, too. 

A dual headline weather day usually means exciting weather is near.  And I am excited!  The stormy cold front I mentioned will bring an end to the extreme heat wave.  I expect highs tomorrow near a more reasonable and seasonable 90 degrees. 

Feel free to respond to this blog!  I look forward to reading your comments.

Take care,

Gannon