Forecasting_With_Gannon
Join Gannon Medwick as he discusses weather in Eastern North Carolina
By Gannon Medwick | Posted Tuesday, April 28, 2009

On April 28, 2008, supercell thunderstorms spawned two dozen tornadoes in our region.  Tornado reports included:

- an EF0 tornado near Belhaven, Beaufort County (no damage)
- an EF0 tornado near Scranton, Hyde County (no damage)

Just to our north, nearly twenty tornadoes ripped southeastern Virginia one year ago today, including a bruising EF3 tornado that struck the City of Suffolk (CLICK HERE for more details and stats from that incredibly rare and violent Virginia twister).

No doubt, April 28, 2008 was one of the most violent weather days our region has seen in the last decade and even last century.  April 28, 2009 will feature sunny, tranquil, spring conditions across the Carolinas and Virginia with a 0% chance for thunderstorms.

Thanks for checking into my blog!

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Friday, April 24, 2009

Thanks for checking into my blog!

As an Eastern North Carolinian watching the firey video footage of the Myrtle Beach wildfire, I’m reminded of the smoky and scorching devastation wrought by last year’s Evans Road Wildfire in the Pocosin Lakes area.  CLICK HERE for full updates on the Myrtle Beach Wildfire and how it relates to the Eastern Carolina forecast.  Below, I compare the current Myrtle Beach Fire and the 2008 Evans Road Fire:

Cuase: A lightning storm sparked the Evans Road Wildfire on 6 / 1 / 08.  Officials believe hot spots from a man’s trash fire ignited the Myrtle Beach Wildfire.

Size: The Evans Road Wildfire grew to consume 40,000 acres of land, mostly in the Pocosin Lakes Wildlife Refuge, in June and July of 2008.  The Myrtle Beach Fire covers 15,000 acres.

Fuel: The Evans Road Wildfire consumed the dense underbrush and peat soil of the Coastal Carolina Region.  The Myrtle Beach Wildfire will have similar fuel available.

Damage / Injury Potential: Despite its smaller aereal size, the Myrtle Beach Fire has a far greater potential to inflict injury and damage than the Evans Road Fire did.  Sprawling Horry County, SC is dotted with large housing developments, resorts, and shopping centers / commercial buildings, while the Pocosin Lakes Wildlife Refuge region is one of the most sparsely-populated sections of the Carolinas.  Unfortunately, as of Friday morning (4 / 24), the Myrtle Beach Fire has already destroyed 70 homes and damaged more than 100.  Thankfully, no injuries or fatalities have been reported.

Weather: Just after the Evans Road Wildfire ignited in early June of 2008, an unseasonably hot and dry stretch of weather ensued.  Little or no rain fell and temperatures regularly reached the 95 - 100 range across Eastern North Carolina during the first and second weeks of June.  The weather was no friend to firefighting efforts!  Unfortunately, in similar fashion, a week of unseasonably warm and dry late April weather is now settling into the Carolinas - not ideal firefighting conditions.

Smoke:  The Evans Road Wildfire brought extended periods of hazardous dense smoke conditions to portions of Hyde, Beuafort, Dare, Tyrrell, and Washington Counties (as well as counties north of the Albemarle Sound) in June 2008.  Bouts of dense smoke even periodically backed into communities like Greenville, New Bern, Rocky Mount, and even Raleigh.  In the case of the Myrtle Beach Fire, the densest smoke will remain near and north of the fire scene (specifically Horry County, SC and Brunswick and Columbus Counties in NC), but bouts of noticeable smoke could still reach Wilmington, Jacksonville, Kinston, Greenville, Goldsboro, Lumberton, Fayetteville, and even Raleigh in the coming days.

Again, you may CLICK HERE for full updates on the Myrtle Beach Wildfire and how it relates to the Eastern Carolina forecast.  In the meantime, thanks for checking into my blog and for staying with Storm Team 9!

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Wednesday, April 22, 2009

The last weekend of April will likely be the warmest to this point in 2009!  This weekend (4 / 25 - 26), inland temperatures will likely climb well into the 80s (locally even flirting with 90?) and coastal sections will have highs in the 70s, but these values will likely fall short of the established record highs:

- The record high for Greenville, NC for Sat. 4 / 25 is 95 and Sun. 4 / 26 is 96.

- The record high for New Bern, NC for Sat. 4 / 25 is 94 and Sun. 4 / 26 is 95.

- The record high for Hatteras, NC for Sat. 4 / 25 is 84 and Sun. 4 / 26 is 86.

Records or not, warm weather fans are sure to savor this weekend’s “summer preview”!  Also, be sure to CLICK HERE to check out some eye-popping record highs recently established in other portions of the U.S.

Thanks for checking into my blog!

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Many Eastern North Carolina thunderstorms packed hail and gusty winds Monday 4 / 20:

- 1.75” (golf ball size!) hail fell at Greenville Blvd. and Pactolus Hwy. in Greenville.
- 1.75” hail fell near Stokes, too.
- Nickel to quarter size hail covered the ground near Farmville.
- On Highway 17, 8 - 9 miles south of Williamston, 1” diameter hailstones fell and a strong wind gust downed trees.
- A strong wind gust downed trees in the Snow Hill area.
- Nickel size hail fell in Beulaville.
- Dime to penny size hail fell in Jamseville.
- Nickel size hail breifly fell in James City.
- Penny size hail fell in Plymouth.

Baseball size hail crushed one town in our state!  Click HERE to find out where with a regional storm report list.  Also, check out a hail size conversion chart HERE.  You can also click HERE for more on why spring is the prime season for hail.

Thanks for checking into my blog!

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Friday, April 17, 2009

Does the Storm Team 9 forecast for a sunny, warm Saturday have you thinking “BEACH!“?  Here are some forecast highs (air temperature) for Saturday for some area beaches:

Duck: Mid / Upper 60s
Hatteras: Mid / Upper 60s
Ocracoke: Mid / Upper 60s
Atlantic Beach: Upper 60s
Emerald Isle: Upper 60s
Topsail Beach: Upper 60s / Near 70

Surf temperatures are lagging - as is typical for April - from the recent winter chill:

Duck: Upper 40s
Hatteras: Upper 50s
Ocracoke: Near 60
Atlantic Beach: Near 60
Emerald Isle: Near 60
Topsail Beach: Near 60

Area surf zones will continue to have moderate risk of rip currents through the weekend.  CLICK HERE for more region-wide surf temperatures and forecast information.  Thanks for checking into my blog!

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms deposited healthy rain totals on much of Eastern Carolina Tuesday 4 / 14 / 09 into the following night.  Here are some noteworthy totals:

- 2.05” at New Bern (including a daily record rainfall of 1.95” for the calendar day of 4 / 14)
- 1.55” at Richlands
- 1.22” at Havelock
- 1.15” at Jacksonville
- 1.03” at Swansboro
- 0.68” at Greenville
- 0.53” at Kinston
- 0.42” at Williamston
- 0.40” at La Grange
- 0.38” at Washington

As I reported last week, rainfall deficits and low-level drought status is still effective for parts of our state (and the East itself), so this rain was beneficial! 

Tuesday’s thunderstorms also brought some sizeable hail to portions of North Carolina (click for details).

Thanks for checking into my blog!  See you soon…

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Tuesday, April 14, 2009

National Weather Service storm spotters are trained to safely spot, measure, and report hail in thunderstorm situations.  Believe it or not, an official conversion guide exists between the exact size of hail (specifically, its diameter in inches) and common, everyday objects.  Some of these I’ve found to be quite interesting:

0.25” = “pea sized hail”

0.50” = “marble sized hail” or “moth ball sized hail”

0.75” = “penny sized hail”

0.88” = “nickel sized hail”

1.00” = “quarter sized hail”

1.25” = “half-dollar sized hail”

1.50” = “walnut sized hail” or “ping-pong ball sized hail”

1.75” = “golf ball sized hail”

2.00” = “hen egg sized hail”

2.50” = “tennis ball sized hail”

2.75” = “baseball sized hail”

3.00” = “tea cup sized hail”

4.00” = “grapefruit sized hail”

4.50” = “softball sized hail” (I actually prefer “I pray you are underground if this is falling sized hail”)

Click to learn more about why springtime is prime time for hail in the Carolinas.  And of course, stay with Storm Team 9 for the latest official weather bulletins in any thunderstorm situation.  In the meantime, thanks for checking out my blog!  See you soon…

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Thursday, April 09, 2009

New NOAA drought numbers released early Thursday, April 9 continue to indicate all of Eastern NC is either in a state of no drought or “D0 / Abnormally Dry”.  As of this morning, New Bern, the primary climate reporting station of Eastern North Carolina, reports:

- 0.31” of rain since April 1.
- a rainfall deficit of 6.89” since January 1 of this year.

While this annual rainfall deficit is undesirable, the frequency and distribution of recent rainfall events has kept New Bern’s official drought stage in check, at no worse than “D0 / Abnormally Dry”.

Greenville is an example of one location that has seen nice, evenly distributed rainfall recently.  At the WNCT Studios, at least 1” has fallen in each week since the end of February.

As of now, your Storm Team 9 Forecast reflects another chance for showers and thunderstorms for Friday night and early Saturday (April 10 / 11) and next Monday night and Tuesday (April 13 / 14).

Read how recent statewide drought news is very encouraging - especially in one particular drought category.

Thanks for checking into my blog!

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Easter Sunday, April 12, sunrise times for Eastern Carolina include:

- 6:33am at Nags Head
- 6:39am at Windsor
- 6:39am at Washington
- 6:39am at Morehead City
- 6:40am at New Bern
- 6:41am at Greenville
- 6:42am at Jacksonville
- 6:42am at Kinston
- 6:44am at Kenansville

Click here for more Easter sunrise times around the East and our state in general.  Also, I expect mostly clear and cool conditions - with temperatures in the 40s - early Easter morning.

Thanks for checking into my blog!  I hope you have a happy Easter!

By Gannon Medwick | Posted Tuesday, April 07, 2009

An energetic cold front ignited vigorous thunderstorms in portions of Eastern Carolina Monday 4 / 6.  Here is a list of severe storm reports:

Sunbury, Gates County: confirmed tornado just southeast of town
Clarkton, Bladen County: confirmed tornado 5 miles southeast of town

Lewiston-Woodville: roof torn off of Peanut Reaserch Institute, falling trees damage cars
Aulander: trees down
Nashville: trees down
Old Ford: trees down

Winterville: .75” diam. hail
Snow Hill: .75” diam. hail
Fremont: .75” diam. hail
Cedar Island: 1” diam. hail

Strong storm cells also produced funnel clouds near Snow Hill and Pactolus around 10:45am and 12:05pm, respectively. 

A final thought: Since any sany storm that produces a funnel cloud can quickly produce a tornado, storms with funnel clouds must be respected and heeded in the same way as storms actually producing tornadoes.  Thankfully, this time, I have seen no reports to suggest that the rotating funnels actually touched down in / near the Snow Hill or Pactolus areas.  Click here for more on the similarities and differences between funnel clouds and tornadoes.

Thanks for checking into my blog!

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