Info on Fay
By Phillip Williams
Monday, August 18, 2008
Hello, I’m Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist Phillip Williams. I will use this blog for entries regarding Tropical Storm Fay. As of this entry, Fay has just crossed Key West, Florida on general northward path. Max winds are 60mph and South Florida is getting soaked. The National Hurricane Center forecast track takes the circulation center of Fay toward Jacksonville, Florida by Thursday and then turns the system northwest into Georgia as it weakens to a Tropical Depression. Of course, much can change between now (Monday) and then. The reason for the late period change in the forecast track is that high pressure is expected to build down the coast and this will help to steer Fay back to the left of the current motion. This high pressure is a dry air mass that could very well prevent Eastern North Carolina from getting any rain from Fay. Winds will increase over the later this week because of the difference between the high and low pressure. Onshore winds will increase tides and increase the rip threats for swimmers. As of now, I don’t expect problems from these winds unless Fay does something unexpected.
Stay tuned for later updates and feel free to ask questions or add comments.
Phillip Williams
WNCT Storm Team 9 Chief Meteorologist
COMMENTS
Tuesday Afternoon Fay Update…
Tropical Storm Fay came ashore on the Southwest Florida coast before sunrise today. It was in a strengthening phase as the central pressure had dropped steadily in the hours before landfall. Fay has remained a strong tropical storm over Florida through the day today with winds of 65 mph. The system even showed signs an eye during the day over land. Florida rarely weakens tropical systems very much since the land is very flat. Fay is expected to emerge over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida early Wednesday and could become a hurricane before it is steered back inland over Northern Florida by Thursday or Friday. The high pressure that is building down the east coast is likely to steer Fay back toward a west northwest or west direction later this week. In looking at the long range models, some have Fay moving into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico and then waiting for the high to move out of the way before moving northeastward into Georgia and the Carolinas as a tropical depression. The amazing part is that this doesn’t happen until late next week. Fay has no intention of going away!
Phillip Williams
Wednesday Fay Update…
This evening Tropical Storm Fay is sitting just off the east coast of Florida southeast of Daytona Beach. The future track of the storm is expected to be toward the northwest and then west-northwest which takes the center over northern Florida during Thursday and Friday. This track will keep significant tropical storm weather away from our area. Heavy rain in Florida and Southern Georgia will produce some flooding. Northern Georgia can really use some rain as it is under exceptional drought like the western Carolinas, but it looks like the heaviest rains may fall south of that area.