Bertha
By Phillip Williams
Thursday, July 03, 2008
Tropical Storm Bertha formed today near the Cape Verde Islands which is just off the west coast of Africa. Do you remember Hurricane Bertha of 1996? That was the first hurricane to hit our area in many years and pretty much started the trend of hurricanes hitting the East. Fran followed later that year then Bonnie arrived in ‘98 and Dennis and Floyd hit us in ‘99.
The current Bertha is expected to move toward the west northwest over the open Atlantic for several days. The water temperature below the storm is marginal for development and will actually be just below what is typical for development over the next couple of days. After that, the system should be over warmer waters. There is a weakness in the upper air pattern over the central Atlantic that could pick up the storm and keep it well away from land. If Bertha remains weak, it could miss the central Atlantic upper air pattern. That would give it a better chance of coming closer to land in about 10 to 14 days. So, basically, if Bertha strengthens over the weekend, then it will likely turn north well before threatening the US. If it remains a system, but a weak one, then it has a better chance to at least reach the western Atlantic.
Here are some computer model forecast tracks as seen from wunderground.com. When you view these computer model tracks, realize that the BAMM is built for storms that are not very deep with thunderstorms. BAMD is built for storms that are well formed and strong. LBAR isn’t very reliable. GFDL does quite well for most storms. GFS can be a good model, but seems to switch forecasts a lot with weak systems.
There is plenty of time to track Bertha. Pick up your Storm Team 9 Hurricane Guide at your local Chevrolet dealership.
Phillip Williams
COMMENTS
Update on Bertha…
As of July 7th, Bertha has reached Category 3 hurricane status. As stated in my July 3rd comment, because Bertha strengthened, the future track of the storm is likely to show a slow northward turn which would keep it away from us. I’ll keep you posted on WNCT channel 9.
Bertha broke the July record for longest lasting named storm. The old record was 12 days. It is currently July 16th and she is still going strong after forming on July 2nd. This storm is no threat to the US, but will go down in the record books or two reasons. First is the longevity of the storm and the second reason is this storm formed farther east in the Atlantic than any previous July tropical storm or hurricane.