A rare breed of summer day might occur Wednesday, the 13th of August - an August day in which temperatures climb no higher than the 70s.  I should note that average high temperatures for mid August are upper 80s to around 90.

Cool August days in the 70s are so rare because it takes an unseasonable day-long combination of thick clouds and persistent rain showers to hold daytime temperatures down.  These factors may indeed come together Wednesday, August 13th, as a storm system approaches Coastal Carolina from the southwest.

Right now, the official Storm Team 9 Forecast has a high of 80 for Wednesday, but this reflects a degree of uncertainty in how thick morning clouds will be and how soon rain showers will arrive.  If clouds begin the day thin, and filtered sunshine breaks through them, temperatures will climb fast.  Also, if rain showers don’t arrive until Wednesday afternoon, their cooling presence will be delayed as well.  But, if clouds stay thick for the entire day and/or rain showers arrive early in the day, temperatures will likely climb no higher than the 70s.

The last time daytime temperatures were held to the 70s in August was in 2004 - when it happened 4 times!  August 6th, 14th, 15th and 29th, 2004 all featured high temperatures in the 70s - and every one of those days featured clouds and measurable rainfall.

To check past weather like I did for this blog, visit the Storm Team 9 Almanac here at wnct.com.  Join me tomorrow for an updated forecast for the showers and the temperatures, too!  In the meantime, thanks for checking out my blog!

Nearly two weeks ago, Hurricane Dolly lashed Deep South Texas with whipping winds and torrential rain.  Today, the Lone Star State braces for a potential Hurricane in Edouard.  As I type, Edouard is a tropical storm, but it will have a chance to deepen into a hurricane before impacting the Upper Texas Coast on Tuesday. 

Why may Texas see two hurricanes in as many weeks?  There are two main reasons.

One reason is almost a given this time of year: warm sea surface temperatures.  Bouys show that the Gulf of Mexico water temperatures near Texas and Louisiana are in the mid to upper 80s - plenty warm to sustain a developing tropical storm system.  Dolly intensified to a hurricane in these waters.  Edouard will likely maintain its tropical storm status and may develop into a hurricane as well.

Another reason that Dolly/Edouard was/is guided to Texas is a westerly mid-level atmospheric wind flow, or “steering wind flow” over the Gulf of Mexico.  Clockwise wind flow around a persistent high pressure system over the Central Plains has meant a prevailing westerly wind flow across the Gulf of Mexico for many recent days and weeks.  Any tropical storm or hurricane caught in these steering winds moves west - toward Texas.

Thanks for checking into my blog.  I look forward to reading any questions/comments you may have.  Be sure to stay with Storm Team 9 in the coming days for the latest on Edouard!

Greetings, and thanks for checking into my blog.  I’m Storm Team 9 Meteorologist Gannon Medwick.

In early June of this year, the weather was sizzling, and we were becoming anxious about the summer to come.  We wondered, “If it’s this hot already, how bad will it be in July?!?!?” Actually, not that bad!  Here are some stats from the Channel 9 Studios comparing temperatures from June 1-14 to July 1-14:

Number of days from June 1-14 above 90 degrees: 10
Of those, the number of days from June 1-14 above 95 degrees: 6
Of those, the number of days from June 1-14 above 100 degrees: 2

Number of days from July 1-14 above 90 degrees: 4
Of those, the number of days from July 1-14 above 95 degrees: 0
Of those, the number of days from July 1-14 above 100 degrees: 0

Also, as I illustrated in a previous blog, rainfall has also been more plentiful in July for much of the East as compared to June - a definite plus.

As I write this at 10am Tuesday morning, July 15, it’s a pleasant 78 degrees outside the Channel 9 Studios.  We’re on our way to a high of 86 with a 30% chance of afternoon showers.  Now that’s a July day I can handle!

After a bone dry June for much of Eastern Carolina, we badly needed a wetter weather pattern in July.  And, as I’m pleased to report, we got it!  Many spots in Eastern Carolina received more rainfall in the first ten days of July than all thirty days of June!  Here are some stats:

Greenville (WNCT) June rainfall: 0.98”
Greenville (WNCT) July 1-10 rainfall: 1.06”

New Bern June rainfall: 0.94”
New bern July 1-10 rainfall: 2.52”

In nearby central North Carolina, July rain was welcome but not quite as badly needed relative to June.  Raleigh received a healthy 4.08” of rain in June, and since July 1, another solid 3.30” fell. 

Keep in mind, summer rain varies greatly over short distances.  Six to seven inches of rain drenched Bethel on the evening of Sunday, July 6.  Greenville, just a few miles away, received only about one quarter inch of rain at that time.

The forecast for this coming July weekend (7/12 and 7/13) features low rain chances - less than 20% - each day.

Thanks for checking my blog!  Feel free to comment and/or send weather questions my way.

Richard from Oriental asks:

1) In the last fifty years how many hurricanes have made landfall on the NC coast in months other than September?

2) When was the earliest in the year that a hurricane made landfall on the NC coast?

3) Why do our hurricanes generally come so late in the season?

Thanks for writing, Richard.  I did some research and here are your answers!

1) By my count, only five hurricanes - outside of the month of September - made full or partial landfall (part of the eye wall affects shore) in Eastern North Carolina in the last 50 years.  Listed here are all of North Carolina’s landfalling hurricanes from the last 50 years:

- Ophelia (partial), September 2005
- Isabel, September 2003
- Floyd, September 1999
- Bonnie, August 1998
- Fran, September 1996
- Bertha, July 1996
- Emily, September 1993 (brush)
- Bob, August 1991 (brush)
- Charley, August 1986
- Diana, September 1984
- Ginger, September 1971
- Gladys, October 1968 (brush)
- Donna, September 1960
- Helene, September 1958 (brush)

Just beyond the 50-year-ago mark, six hurricanes made full landfall or brushed Eastern North Carolina in 1954 and 1955.  Four of the six hurricanes struck outside of the month of September, including the infamous Hazel of October 1954.

2) In the period I examined above, Hurricane Bertha was the earliest hurricane in a given calendar year to strike North Carolina.  Bertha made landfall near Wilmington in July 1996 as a Category 2 storm.

3) I wouldn’t call September particularly “late” in a given hurricane season.  Statistically, September represents the peak of Atlantic Basin hurricane activity.  Hurricanes are almost unheard of in North Carolina in the first quarter of hurricane season (early June through mid July) and the last quarter of the season (mid October through late November). 

The middle 50% of hurricane season (roughly July 15 through October 15) is when North Carolina gets practically all of its hurricanes.  Hurricanes benefit from the high ocean surface temperatures and low atmospheric wind shear usually present during this time of year.  In fact, since the mid 1950s, only Hurricane Bertha broke the July 15 - October 15 mold (it struck July 12).

Keep the weather questions coming!  And, as always, thanks for checking out my blog, “Forecasting with Gannon”!

Numerous showers and thunderstorms dotted the East from last Friday through yesterday, but a high pressure system will bring drier weather Tuesday through this coming Friday.  Expect inland highs near 92 Tuesday and 94 Wednesday through Friday.  Daily temperatures will crest in the mid 80s to around 90 for the beaches in this period.  Said high pressure system will break down this weekend, so chances for scattered thunderstorms creep into the forecast at this time.  Thanks for checking your Storm Team 9 Forecast here at wnct.com!

I am filing this blog entry the morning of Tuesday, June 10.  My forecast for Tuesday afternoon is for another blistering hot day in Eastern Carolina with inland highs near 99.  Temperatures will be a little more manageable - in the low 90s for highs - by Wednesday.

Though our current intense heat wave is not quite over, I feel that now is a fine time to look back on this June’s scorching stretch of weather as well as some other notable heat waves of recent years.  First, here are the high temperatures from the past several days:

Thursday, June 5: 97 at Greenville, 96 at New Bern
Friday, June 6: 98 at Greenville, 97 at New Bern
Saturday, June 7: 99 at Greenville, 98 at New Bern
Sunday, June 8: 101 at Greenville, 99 at New Bern
Monday, June 9: 101 at Greenville, 99 at New Bern

Incredibly, New Bern has hit a daily record high temperature on each of the past five days!

So, what about some other notable hot weather streaks in recent memory?  Perhaps you remember August 2007.  Aided by a developing drought and dry ground, inland temperatures reached 90 or better a whopping 26 of the 31 days in the month.  On four of those 26 days, the mercury soared above 100!  Greenville hit 103 on the 8th and 101 on the 9th and 10th. 

Though the summer of 2006 was far less hot than that of 2007, late July and early August 2006 featured an intense heat wave.  Inland Eastern North Carolina’s temperatures crested in the upper 90s from July 31 through August 3.  Greenville, Kinston and Kenansville broke 100 degrees on the 4th before relatively cooler temperatures - near 90 - returned on the 5th.

The summer of 2005 featured plentiful rain, and accordingly, no prolonged, intense stretches of heat.  The hottest day of this summer was July 25, when the temperature soared to near 100 at Greenville, New Bern and Kinston.

Temperatures failed to reach 100 degrees across most of Eastern Carolina during the summers of 2003 and 2004.  The hottest stretch of weather in this period occurred just after Independence Day of that 2004.  Inland temperatures reached the middle and upper 90s from July 5th through the 10th.

Lastly, looking back to 2002, I find that two pronounced heat waves occcured in Eastern Carolina during that summer.  The first brought inland temperatures to the mid and upper 90s for inland locations from June 12th to the 14th.  The second produced upper 90s to near 100 degree temperatures at Greenville, Kinston and New Bern from July 28th through the 30th.

Stay cool!  ...and thanks for checking into my blog!

If you blinked, you missed it!  Arthur, the first named tropical storm of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season, formed late this past Saturday.  Arthur’s story, though short, is an interesting one.

Last week, the low pressure system that was to become Arthur was actually Alma, the first tropical storm of the 2008 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.  Rainy Alma came ashore in Central America late last week and had crossed that relatively thin strip of land early this past weekend. 

By Saturday afternoon, Alma’s remnant low pressure system had encountered just enough warm, western Caribbean Sea water to regenerate tropically.  This time, however, the tropical storm would be given an Atlantic name: Arthur. 

Arthur didn’t stay over water long, and its winds never strengthened beyond minimal tropical storm levels.  By Sunday, Arthur had come ashore again, this time on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.  Today, Arthur is a remnant low pressure system.  It’s torrential rains are soaking southern Mexico.

Even though Arthur was a weak storm, and even though it will have no impact on the United States, its formation was nonetheless remarkable.  Arthur reminded us of the official arrival of this year’s Hurricane Season.  The next storm name for the 2008 season is Bertha, but the tropical Atlantic Basin is again quiet and I see no signs of Bertha forming. 

Thanks for staying with Storm Team 9 throughout the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  The final airing of Storm Team 9’s TV hurricane special, “Ahead of the Storm 2008”, happens tonight at 7 on WNCT Channel 9.  I hope you’ll tune in!

A nice viewer recently emailed me with the following weather question:

I have noticed that any time I see footage of a tornado, it doesn’t seem to be raining very hard or at all.  Is it more likely to NOT be raining when a tornado forms?

That’s a fine question indeed, as it prompts an answer that looks at the unique structure of tornadic thunderstorms:

Tornadic thunderstorms (called “supercells” or rotating thunderstorms) usually have a different structure than ordinary storms.  In supercells, the downdraft side of the storm (where heavy rain and hail is) is separate from the updraft side (where a tornado might form).  If you were to position a camera on the downdraft side of the storm you wouldn’t likely be able to get a shot of the tornado because visibility would be obscured by rain and hail.  But, if you were to shoot a tornado from the rear flank of the storm, near the exposed updraft, you could theoretically get a fantastic shot of a tornado. 

So, it’s not so much that the thunderstorms that produce tornadoes can’t or don’t produce a boatload of rain and hail, too.  It’s more that the photographers that can shoot great tornado video – the kind that will make it on the news – shoot the storm from just the right angle.

Storm Team 9 always welcomes your weather questions.  In the meantime, enjoy a storm-free Friday!